News and AnalysIs for

Incidents were up slightly again this week but well within recent variation. Our 4-week Moving Average has dropped continuously since the week of October 20th, except for a small blip the week of December 1st. It now sits at 24 incidents per week down from a peak of 58 back in October.

Incidents were down sharply again this week likely because the Armed Forces turned their attention to protecting tourists on the highways and away from discovering and destroying guerilla infrastructure. Our 4-week Moving Average has dropped continuously since the week of October 20th, except for a small blip the week of December 1st. It now sits at 28 incidents per week down from a peak of 58 back in October.

Incidents were up slightly this week but still well below current averages. We calculate a 4-week moving average to smooth out weekly variations and although that rose significantly in the run-up to the first round of peace talks, it dropped almost as rapidly to settle at about 40 incidents per week. With two straight weeks below 30 incidents, the moving average is now dropping and shows every indication (statistically) to continue to drop.

Incidents were down considerably this week – everyone must be getting ready for the holiday. We calculate a 4-week moving average to smooth out weekly variations and although that rose significantly in the run-up to the first round of peace talks, it dropped almost as rapidly to settle at about 40 incidents per week. This value has held for the last five weeks and appears to be the “new normal”. There was a secondary peak just as this round of talks started and but since then counts have dropped for four straight weeks.

The Colombian Armed Forces recently encountered an antiaircraft battery belonging to the Farc. However the Air Force commander assures that the equipment is old and unlikely to function well. We did not know the Farc had antiaircraft batteries old or otherwise. From a MinDefensa press release with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Incidents were down this week, right about the average for the past several weeks. We calculate a 4-week moving average to smooth out weekly variations and although that rose significantly in the run-up to the first round of peace talks, it dropped almost as rapidly to settle at about 40 incidents per week. This value has held for the last four weeks and appears to be the “new normal”. Once again the vast majority of these were the Army continuing to discover camps, minefields and weapons caches so perhaps the Farc are keeping up their truce commitment.

National weekly news magazine Semana published a report about the country’s regions where the most organized violent incidents are happening. According to the report, the division splintering of large criminal organizations has led to the emergence of criminal gangs seeking to appropriate the local illicit business.

In our Inner Circle Exclusive Monthly Report for November we published MinDefensa figures that showed hydrocarbons infrastructure attacks were down to 196 in 2011 from 917 in 2002. The graph shows the importance of picking your measurement dates to make your point. The Defense Minister implied (but did not say) that there had been a steady decline from 2002 to 2011. We obtained this data for attacks on Ecopetrol and they clearly show a rather dramatic increase since 2010 – the start of the Santos presidency – from about 30 during the later years of Uribe’s second term to 150 as of the end of October 2012.

Incidents were down this week, returning the average for the last four weeks. The vast majority of these were the Army continuing to discover camps, minefields and weapons caches so perhaps the Farc are keeping up their truce commitment.

As we predicted, incidents were way up this week after having fallen for five straight weeks. The vast number of incidents were reported by the Colombian Armed Forces so it was clear the government was responsible for turning up the heat. The Colombian government never agreed to lay down their arms so this is not surprising. This is not to say the Farc were angels or that the self-declared truce was being observed perfectly, but there were fewer of these. ‘Somebody’ blew up two electrical towers in Antioquia and the departmental government thinks it was the Farc.