News and AnalysIs for

Incidents were up slightly this week but still well below current averages. We calculate a 4-week moving average to smooth out weekly variations and although that rose significantly in the run-up to the first round of peace talks, it dropped almost as rapidly to settle at about 40 incidents per week. With two straight weeks below 30 incidents, the moving average is now dropping and shows every indication (statistically) to continue to drop.

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