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Long Form Reports

Into the fog

Deep breath. Time to write my annual “Fearless Forecasts” article where I give my baseline scenario for the coming year. Unfortunately – for me, for the industry, for Colombia, for the world – we enter this year with a higher-than-average amount of uncertainty.

Monday, January 24th, 2022
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Ecopetrol’s Line of Business Reporting with ISA

Ecopetrol’s Line of Business Reporting with ISA

Now that the Ecopetrol / ISA deal is official, the NOC has to report consolidated numbers. For the company’s overall numbers, the accountants should have no difficulties. But how will the Line-of-Business (LoB) reporting look? We some hints with the 3Q21 report.

Monday, January 17th, 2022
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The persistence of dependence

Left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro continues to lead in the polls and his most controversial economic proposals – stopping oil exploration and halting oil exports – continues to make headlines in Colombia. Over the holiday period, business newspaper Portafolio published a Spanish translation of Alliance France Press (AFP) article which it entitled (translated to English) “Is the world ready to live without oil?”

Monday, January 10th, 2022
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Glad to have been wrong

Glad to have been wrong

In my fearless forecasts for 2021, I got the most important variable wrong and I am very glad I did, because I got it wrong in the right direction.

Monday, December 13th, 2021
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What did we learn from the Colombia Round 2021?

This past week, the ANH held its Colombia Round 2021 auction and there can be no doubt it was a great success. Thirty blocks were awarded, the most since 2012 when oil prices were over US$100/bl (and to be frank, many of the blocks assigned were never worked). What went well and what could be improved?

Monday, December 6th, 2021
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Permutations and Combinations

Permutations and Combinations

As we have said on several occasions, given Gustavo Petro’s stated intention to stop oil exploration if elected, one of the most important planning questions for 2022 and beyond is “Who will win the Presidential elections?” With just over six months to go to May 29th, the first round, the chess pieces are moving but we could hope Colombians would be more direct with pollsters.

Monday, November 29th, 2021
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The Elephant in the Room

Last week was the big show – the biggest oil and gas conference of the year – the IV Oil and Gas Summit, once again held virtually (apart from a presidential pre-candidates’ debate). The mood was generally positive but the elephant in the room, that almost no one talked about, hung over most of what was said.

Monday, November 22nd, 2021
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Netback continues to rise

Netback continues to rise

Average oil netback for the Colombian industry rose for the third consecutive quarter, thanks mostly prices rising for six consecutive quarters, but also improved margins.

Monday, November 15th, 2021
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Who is to blame?

Lunch was the Saturday-before-last, the day before COP26 began in Glasgow and just as the G20 were trying – and failing – to reach their own consensus on climate change. The university professor sitting next to me said “It’s not up to us anyway, is it? Only large companies and governments can do anything.” And the debate began…

Monday, November 8th, 2021
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Coveñas / Caño Limón getting complicated again

Coveñas / Caño Limón getting complicated again

Before the peace agreement with the Farc we kept statistics on security incidents that occurred near oil infrastructure. We stopped collecting the statistics when incidents fell off dramatically (or the press stopped reporting them). But now things are getting complicated in Catatumbo especially and a reader asked if we had any uptime statistics on the Coveñas /Caño Limón (CCL) pipeline which passes through some of the ‘hot spots’.

Monday, November 1st, 2021
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