A couple of weeks ago we reported President Gustavo Petro’s declaration that Colombia would withdraw from the international investment arbitration system, leaving only local courts to settle contract disputes. We wanted to go a bit deeper into this.
Our 2026 publishing plan called for a discussion of CAPEX and Brent assumptions this week since we expected to have the major companies’ 2025 reports. We will do that but the Iran War has played havoc with oil prices and President Donald Trump’s speech the other night apparently reassured no one that global crude markets would return to normal anytime soon.
No one can say 2026 has been uneventful in the oil and gas sector. A bidding war for Frontera’s E&P assets, potential for a change in the economic program in Colombia with a new president on August 7th and the Iran War send Brent up over US120 are but a few of the noteworthy items. Perhaps the biggest for Latin America with important implications for Colombia is the US intervention in Venezuela which promises to revitalize that country’s oil and gas production. However, will the promise be realized and what are the opportunities for companies in Colombia? We asked Jorge Neher, a Venezuelan Partner at Dentons Cardenas and Cardenas, who has lived and worked in Colombia for almost two decades, with deep knowledge of both countries’ oil and gas sectors, to tell us what is happening on the ground and how things could play out.
Some readers may think we are ignoring the sector’s most important news: the Iran War and its impact on oil prices. Instead, we worry about reporting things you already know, especially those that are widely reported global stories. Here we update our price charts for those who use them and try to make relevant Colombia-specific comments on what are rapidly changing events.
The primaries are over and the deadline has passed for joining the ballot. We know who will be in the running and who their running mates will be. And we can update our senate chart although we still have nothing official.
But we still think the issues are mostly beyond management’s control. That is, it is not Ricardo Roa and the Petro government’s fault (entirely) at least at the operational level. Strategy? Management distractions? That’s another issue.
Next Sunday, March 8th, Colombians go to the polls for two separate but related purposes. Roughly half will vote in one of three primary elections for the right (excluding the leading candidate), the left (excluding the leading candidate) and the not-so-left. Perhaps the more important votes will be for Senate and Congress although these get less press coverage.
Colombia registered its worst trade deficit in history in 2025, reaching US$16.B FOB, surpassing pandemic-era records. Meanwhile, extractive industry trade balance contributed positively, although declining as well. DANE also published GDP for 4Q25 so we look at that from a sector perspective.
My “give back gig” is I work with the electrical engineer’s association (ACIEM) where I get involved in high technology and some energy issues. In that role, I’ve spent a lot of time at ACIEM events (like Enercol) where I got to meet ex-GEB president, Sandra Fonseca and see her discuss sectoral issues. I was somewhat surprised to see she’d left Asoenergia (where she was Executive Director) but then less surprised to see she was running for senator, under the umbrella of Nuevo Liberalismo.
Colombian industry consultant and HCC contributor Tomás de la Calle was struck by the Geopark / Frontera transaction and inspired to write this historical reflection.
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