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Long Form Reports

The Petro effect

The Petro effect

No one likes to be blamed for something they didn’t do. In the days following Gustavo Petro’s victory in Colombia’s recent presidential elections, Colombia-focused oil and gas stocks nosedived, with Ecopetrol in particular losing over 25% of its value at one point. Petro says “I’m not to blame” saying all oil and gas stocks were in decline because of the inevitability of energy transition. Let us use the data to see if he is right.

Monday, July 4th, 2022
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Dispatches from the buffet table

I was at a conference this week (not virtual!) and, inevitably, all the meals were served buffet-style (which we used to call smorgasbord – but have not seen that word much lately). Inspired by this, my commentary will be a little bit of one thing and some of another: Petro, oil prices, President Duque’s legacy and whatever else inspires – or maybe less. Inevitably as well at a buffet, one’s ambitions exceed one’s capacity.

Sunday, June 26th, 2022
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The start of a new cycle

The start of a new cycle

Colombia was a charter member of the Washington Consensus and although some “true believers” of former-president Álvaro Uribe might disagree with me, the country has followed the liberal economic order for more than 25 years, certainly as long as I have been here. Now that consensus is almost certain to change.

Tuesday, June 21st, 2022
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Demand not supply

Juan Pablo Ruiz is my favorite Colombian environmentalist because he is completely rational, completely pragmatic without losing one bit of his passion and commitment. Recently, he wrote a pair of columns directed at Colombia’s future president that touched on the strategy of reducing demand or supply of fossil fuels. I might have written them or at least something like them.

Monday, June 13th, 2022
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High prices even help Refining!

High prices even help Refining!

It is only the first quarter so our simple projections are highly suspect, and we will concentrate on relative measures. Conclusion: higher prices are a good thing even for Ecopetrol’s feeble Refining Line-of-Business (LoB). There. You don’t have to read the article. Except to look at the graphs.

Monday, June 6th, 2022
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Petro / No Petro (II)

Here we are again. A Manichean contest between left and right with both sides casting the other in the role of Satan. On Sunday, May 29th, Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández won the right to a runoff on June 19th to see who will be the president of Colombia.

Monday, May 30th, 2022
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Bringing it all back home… to the shareholders

Bringing it all back home… to the shareholders

The first chart may be hard to read but it shows that Colombia-focused E&Ps are controlling costs even as prices rise, so netback is rising meaning more profit for the shareholders.

Monday, May 23rd, 2022
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Fair, equitable and consistent with the reality of the country

The ACP issued a press release on the last day of its Grand Forum which covered events of the day but also wrapped up the major themes. We have already covered Day 2 so here we translate the broader ideas and provide our own commentary.

Monday, May 16th, 2022
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The pandemic – or at least the panic – ends in Colombia

The pandemic – or at least the panic – ends in Colombia

On May 1st2021, the Colombian government lifted most restrictions related to Covid-19. It also stopped issuing daily statistical bulletins. Two years and two months after it began, the pandemic seems to be over in Colombia. We assume (hope) that this will, therefore, be our last publication of these statistics and we only do so because they show the complete course of the disease in Colombia.

Monday, May 9th, 2022
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Middle of the road

New presidential election polls have come out and, once again, they predicts that Gustavo Petro will win in a runoff on June 19th. We also recently published a roundup of the leading candidates opinions of the oil and gas industry and all were in favor except Petro. That paints an unpleasant future for the industry but this may be exaggerating the risks.

Sunday, May 1st, 2022
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