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Long Form Reports

Timing is everything

Timing is everything

The lead graph shows our annualized data for the evolution of Ecopetrol’s Net Income by Line of Business (LoB). The NOC has only reported through 3Q22 but we do a simple straight-line projection to compare to prior years. Barring some unforeseen implosion, shareholders can expect a record year for earnings driven by the E&P business. These results could not have come at a better time.

Monday, November 21st, 2022
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The thrill of it all

If, as expected, you read this in the Tuesday, November 15th 2022 newsletter, then Gustavo Petro celebrates his 100th day as President of Colombia. A Petro presidency was always going to be challenging but we do not think anyone anticipated the speed of the roller coaster we ride.

Like many things in this polarized world we now live in, most, perhaps all, Colombians fall into one of two camps: those who think Petro is a disaster and those who think there have been hiccups but he has brought about more change in three months than most presidents in three years. And like most things in this polarized world we now live in, both viewpoints contain elements of truth.

Sunday, November 13th, 2022
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How do you stop?

How do you stop?

One of the key questions underlying the debate about the oil and gas industry in Colombia concerns when demand will peak and so for how long can public finances count on the flow of exports and tax revenues. Gustavo Petro’s “Illuminati” believe we all should stop using fossil fuels today and stop producing the stuff. More pragmatic observers think it too soon to (as some headlines put it) kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Recently the International Energy Agency (IEA) weighed in with its view, based on various climate change scenarios.

Monday, November 7th, 2022
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Total Peace: October 2022 What to do about the dissidents

The so-called FARC dissidents cause headaches for President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” plan and this month’s debate over enabling legislation brought the issues to the fore, unfortunately without permanent resolution. The ELN process moved a small step and land reform took a giant leap.

Monday, October 31st, 2022
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Mostly Petro’s fault

Mostly Petro’s fault

Our readers located outside of Colombia may not have noticed but the Colombia peso has soared lately, and pundits expect it to cross the 5,000 pesos-to-the-dollar barrier any day. It may have already done so by the time you read this article. Inevitably the finger pointing has started. Colombian President Gustavo Petro blames the United States. Business groups tend to blame Petro. In the interest of truth if not beauty, we looked at the data.

Monday, October 24th, 2022
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Ten Years After

In late October of 2012, the ANH held a block auction as the centerpiece of a conference in Cartagena. Tomás de la Calle and I attended, distributing paper copies of the first Hydrocarbons Colombia monthly. The website had come up earlier in the week. Now, ten years after, the website continues to keep you informed, if not always entertained.

Sunday, October 16th, 2022
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It is Petro’s fault

It is Petro’s fault

Or maybe it is Irene Vélez’s fault but in any event the change in government has clearly impacted the share prices of Colombia-focused oil and gas producers. To no one’s surprise (we assume), Ecopetrol is among the hardest hit.

Monday, October 10th, 2022
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Total peace

You are probably reading this on October 4th, 2022, less than two months after Gustavo Petro was sworn in as Colombia’s president. Amongst other broad commitments he said “I will work to achieve true and definitive peace.” Specifically, he announced that he would immediately begin negotiations with the ELN. Shortly after that, Petro began talking about a “Total Peace”, incorporating not only the ELN but the narcos who continue to terrorize parts of the country.

Monday, October 3rd, 2022
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Llanos rising

Llanos rising

As the lead graph shows, crude oil production rose this year (10,786bd). Not much (1.5%), but it rose. Here’s why.

Monday, September 26th, 2022
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Shrink your way to greatness

Among MinEnergia Irene Vélez’s many ‘faux pas’ is telling the Colombian Mining Association’s annual conference that developed countries should shrink their economies to reduce the load on the environment. This would also allow her and her cabinet colleagues to reduce the extractive sector – guilt free – because there would be less consumption.

Monday, September 19th, 2022
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