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Long Form Reports

Fearless Predictions

So my first fearless prediction did not come true. I said in December this article would be published in January and it is already nearly the end of February. Please do not take this as an indicator of my forecasting ability.

Monday, February 24th, 2020
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Foregone conclusion

Foregone conclusion

The UPME recently released its forecasts of natural gas supply and demand. It concludes a second regasification plant is required and it has to be in Buenaventura. Surprise! Wow! Amazing! Did not see that coming! Thank goodness Colombian taxpayers can count on an impartial agency like the UPME to objectively study these important issues.

Monday, February 17th, 2020
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The Transformation of the Colombian Natural Gas Market: the Transition from a State- to a Private- and Back to a State-driven Market? Part I – From 1975 to 2013

Gas is a ‘hot topic’ presently with concerns about self-sufficiency and the right strategies to address them. In a very timely contribution, Tomás de la Calle returns with a multi-part article on the Colombian gas market.

Monday, February 10th, 2020
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Welcome to the roller coaster

Welcome to the roller coaster

With oil prices on a roller coaster since the start of the new year, we thought we should update our usual graphs. Last presented in September, the panaorama has changed considerably.

Monday, February 3rd, 2020
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Colombia is NOT the most corrupt country in the world

Or even in Latin America. The headline might have upset your board members or institutional investors when it appeared a few weeks ago but it was false. Colombia is not exactly a shining example of public service morality but not the most corrupt in the world or even the region.

Monday, January 27th, 2020
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Running out of sample

Running out of sample

Our index of shares of Colombia -focused companies is rapidly becoming a set of special cases – a small set which has just got smaller.

Monday, January 20th, 2020
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MinEnergia announces draft decree for fracking pilots

As a belated Christmas gift perhaps, the Energy Ministry published a draft decree to govern Integrated Investigation Pilot Projects for unconventional technologies (PPII). The public has until Monday January 20th, 2020 to comment.

Tuesday, January 7th, 2020
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2019: Turning a corner

About half the ‘end-of-year’ articles I see look forward and half look backward. I like to do both as we cross into a new year, some (most?) say into a new decade. This week I look backward and then about one month from now with the first What We Think article of 2020, I will look forward.

Sunday, December 15th, 2019
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Transport saves the day – again

Transport saves the day – again

Ecopetrol’s 9-month results to September 2019 show that, once again, the Transport Line-of-Business (LOB) has compensated for lower oil prices and poorer margins in the Refining LOB. Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC)

Sunday, December 8th, 2019
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Looking at the glass

This week I came across the phrase “Forget whether the glass is half-full or half-empty: just be happy you have a glass and there is something in it”. This nicely sums up the ANH’s recent bid round.

Monday, December 2nd, 2019
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