Well maybe not as bad as last month, but bad. More news items than we have ever seen (not a good sign by itself) and all topics trending down. Only good news out of the Segunda Marquetalia negotiations gave any positive glimmers.
Former ombudsman (Defensor del Pueblo) Carlos Negret says the country is in the same situation it was in 1998. In Cauca, where he hails from, he is probably right. There are other similarities, like a peace process going nowhere it seems, but some differences.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro said this in his X (Twitter) account after the country’s Armed Forces successfully downed 15 dissident FARC soldiers near hotspot El Plateado, Cauca. Maybe it was the president’s well-known flare for the dramatic. Maybe it was frustration. Maybe it was a message to the dissident FARC or the ELN or the Clan del Golfo or all. Maybe it was a mix of all three reasons.
Another month of low press activity – one more than February with two more days – and another ride on the rollercoaster although we moved neither closer nor further away from peace by the end. Both the ELN and alias Mordisco processes came off-the-rails during March and both also were righted by Easter. However, the ExFarc / Mordisco negotiations remain on very shaky ground with the ceasefire suspended and the Army preparing to dislodge the dissident leader’s gang from Jamundí.
With Colombian President Gustavo Petro now nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize, his desperation level has risen considerably while the counterparties have no intention or, indeed, pressure to concede on any point.
January was supposed to end with an extension of a ceasefire with the ELN. New head of the peace process, Otty Patiño even announced they had an agreement. But in an eerie repeat of last January’s debacle, whatever deal had been worked out was dismissed by alias Antonio Garcia, head of the guerrilla group. Near midnight on the 31st, they agreed to keep talking but only until February 5th.
In recent months, threats against oil transporters and shipping companies operating on the Magdalena River have prompted the Colombian Navy to ramp up security measures.
In a surprising move, the Jurisdicción Especial para la Paz (JEP), or Special Jurisdiction for Peace, accepted José Eduardo González Sánchez, a former captain in the National Army who served as the deputy head of security for Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), into its jurisdiction.
In Colombia’s oil fields, an unusual issue has come to the forefront—copper theft.
The end of December and time for our monthly review of how the peace process has evolved. Frankly, poorly, but it was a light month as everyone got ready for the holidays: even guerrilla want to be home for Christmas it seems. But I also thought it time to look back at the year leveraging a statistical analysis by Indepaz as well as our own database.
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