News and AnalysIs for

With the ELN ceasefire starting, this should have been a positive month. It wasn’t. The ELN were doing their usual things to undermine Colombians’ confidence and even the High Peace Commissioner expressed impatience with the dissident FARC.

In yet another unfortunate incident, the Coveñas Caño Limón (CCL) oil pipeline fell victim to an attack by armed groups.

For several decades, terrorist attacks stemming from the country’s armed conflict have targeted Ecopetrol’s infrastructure and the installed illegal valves for systematic hydrocarbon theft.

I collected a few more articles this month (99) than last month (94) and Colombia had some dramatic incidents. But mostly this month was working through the details of the ELN ceasefire that starts the first week of August. More discussions in Buenaventura and trying to get back to the table with Alias Mordisco kept the High Commissioner and the President busy.

While President Gustavo Petro claims that the war between the State and insurgent groups was coming to an end, illegal armed groups disrupted public order in the southern region of Colombia.

In its passion to avoid auctioning additional oil and gas exploration contracts, the Petro government wants to revive 39 blocks that the ANH has suspended at the companies’ request. Is there really an opportunity to “return the suspension request to sender” and create new reserves and production? And if so, how much production could be affected?

Early in the month, the Colombian government and the ELN signed a ceasefire protocol which supposedly will let them negotiate substantial issues without the pressure of violence. We’ll see how that goes.

I have been sitting on this story since late May, not knowing whether to use it or where to use it. Technically, it is an energy-related story and so I should put it in ePowerColombia (ePC). But we deal with social conflict issues more in Hydrocarbons Colombia so it seems right to address the issue here.

Congress and the opposition once again called for Danilo Rueda’s head as violence flared and the dissident FARC process came apart even before the first formal meeting. The ELN process passed through some rocky moments when it looked like the government would suspend those dialogues as well, but the parties still talk in Havana.

National newspaper El Espectador used the phrase for an article on the upcoming third round with the ELN. It seemed like a good summary of April as things slipped through the government’s fingers.