News and AnalysIs for

The peace talks continue their somewhat strange rhythm with both sides smiling for the cameras and issuing upbeat communiqués but the Farc and the ELN returning to kidnapping and heinous civilian terrorism. The result is a dynamic where the President joins the Defense Minister in denouncing the acts, civil society hardens its views and yet the negotiators continue as if nothing were going on back home that might impact the talks.

Colombia ran a kind of controlled experiment from the 20th of November to the 20th of January when the Farc observed a unilateral ceasefire. During this time, oil and gas companies were largely free to produce and transport what they wanted, limited only by geology, normal production difficulties like equipment breakdowns, community activism and the National Environmental Licensing Agency (ANLA). These months from November to January were also the three highest production months in the history of Colombia. Was this a glimpse at the peace dividend and if so, we asked, what was it worth?

Direct infrastructure attacks numbers eight and nine took place in southwest Putumayo. One was directly on the TransAndino pipeline and the other on the feeder pipeline that brings oil up from San Miguel/La Hormiga.

With the peace talks underway and the Farc trying to get a bi-lateral truce, the question has been how firm is President Santos in continuing to pursue military options. The Farc certainly have launched some very high profile attacks – twice against the TransAndino pipeline since January 20th. Would the desire for peace trump the need to maintain pressure on the guerrilla? Here is a Presidential press release from a speech to the troops on the line. Translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Incidents were back down this week to 47 but they had settled into the familiar pattern of both location and type of incident. The ELN continues to try and get itself taken seriously through kidnapping. Our 4-week Moving Average up slightly and it now sits at 54 incidents per week, back where it was at the beginning of November last year although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

As we reported last week, the peace process has been marked by the optimism of Santos, the FARC’s claim of a National Constituent Assembly and the skepticism of the political right and other sectors. However, the FARC has stepped up attacks and kidnappings and Santos seems less optimistic.

Incidents were back down this week to 50 but a number of high-profile kidnappings got the country’s attention. Our 4-week Moving Average up another 15% and it now sits at 51 incidents per week, back where it was at the beginning of November last year although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

In recent statements, President Santos has been optimistic about the peace process with Farc. He said that “if there is will, this country will find that much desired peace.” He recalled that ever since he took office, he considered the peace process a possibility: “And so from day one, with great humility, but with much -and this is what I learned from Winston Churchill- perseverance, I began to weave the possibility of approaching the enemy, approaching FARC, to see if they wanted to find a negotiated solution and end this conflict.”

Incidents were up 38% again this week to 69 – the highest level we have ever recorded. This sent our 4-week Moving Average up 36% and it now sits at 44 incidents per week, back where it was at the beginning of December last year although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

Business newspaper La Republica reports that the mining and energy locomotive is slowing its advance due to terrorist attacks. In July 2012 the Cerrejon suffered seven attacks while Ecopetrol reported 49 to September of the same year. This caused sector goals in 2012 to not be fully met. “Without doubt the reported attacks influenced the outcome of mining GDP, which slowed last year,” said María Constanza García, National Mining Agency (ANM) president.