News and AnalysIs for

Incidents were down this week, right about the average for the past several weeks. We calculate a 4-week moving average to smooth out weekly variations and although that rose significantly in the run-up to the first round of peace talks, it dropped almost as rapidly to settle at about 40 incidents per week. This value has held for the last four weeks and appears to be the “new normal”. Once again the vast majority of these were the Army continuing to discover camps, minefields and weapons caches so perhaps the Farc are keeping up their truce commitment.

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