Continued security problems have the Arauca Department authorities and law enforcement officials scrambling to properly assign personnel and resources to the task of protecting the strategic Coveñas / Caño Limón and Bicentennial pipelines.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down from last week’s recent peak at 33 but right at recent and long-term averages. Both last week and this week may be underestimated for reasons explained below. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were above average in absolute terms but below average as a percentage of the total. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 33.0 and the 52 week average was actually down slightly at 31.9 incidents per week.
To date the government’s Special Programs for Peace Fund of the executive branch has spent CoP$14.5B (US$7.3) on facilitating the necessary conditions for the peace process in Havana, Cuba.
The Colombian military has fingered the Farc for a string of attacks on oil infrastructure following the end of month long unilateral truce that ended January 15. The attacks have led to oil spills that reached rivers in Putumayo.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up significantly this week at 47, the highest level since early March. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were above average in absolute terms but below average as a percentage of the total. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 28.8 and the 52 week average was actually down slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.6 incidents per week.
This week marks the start of a critical phase for the peace talks in Havana, Cuba. Save four incidents, the Farc kept their word on a month long truce over the holidays, which came to a close on January 15th. Meanwhile next Monday, January 20 the first round of 2014 gets moving, and time is running out.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up this week at 31 above recent and but below long-term averages. We found no non-Armed Forces reported events. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 25.5 and the 52 week average was unchanged at 32.7 incidents per week.
Although the Farc continues to threaten that they will break their unilateral truce if the Armed Forces keep harassing them, this was a quiet week. The overall count decreased to 20 this week, below recent and long-term averages.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down significantly this week at 16 well below recent and long-term averages. However, non-Armed Forces incidents were about twice the long-term average in percentage terms, about average in absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 26.5 and the 52 week average was down slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.8 incidents per week.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up this week at 34 above recent and long-term averages. However, non-Armed Forces incidents were only about half the long-term average. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 29.5 and the 52 week average was up slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.9 incidents per week.
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