News and AnalysIs for

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down to 28 below recent and long-term averages. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were below average both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the total. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 38.8 and the 52 week average was also down at 31.5 incidents per week.

This week revelations that a clandestine group has been monitoring phone calls of those involved in the peace process on both sides has set off a storm of attention and controversy, with the Farc accusing former President Alvaro Uribe of being behind the spy program.

Among the possible alternatives to ease transportation problems involving oil tanker-trucks are license plate restrictions that would limit when a specific truck could be on the roadway, while the authorities debate the controversial issue between different entities

This week the United Nations held its second regional summit of Latin American leaders in Havana, Cuba and the peace talks in Colombia were a recurrent theme, while back in Colombia some question whether a fissure in the Farc’s organization is already taking place.

The accumulated losses from multiples strikes and protests in 2013 cost the Colombian economy a total of CoP$1.8T (US$893.9M), with the largest loss coming from the August 2013 general strike. The oil industry has felt the effect due to reduced transportation options, and frozen fuel prices have eaten into Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) revenue.

Continued security problems have the Arauca Department authorities and law enforcement officials scrambling to properly assign personnel and resources to the task of protecting the strategic Coveñas / Caño Limón and Bicentennial pipelines.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down from last week’s recent peak at 33 but right at recent and long-term averages. Both last week and this week may be underestimated for reasons explained below. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were above average in absolute terms but below average as a percentage of the total. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 33.0 and the 52 week average was actually down slightly at 31.9 incidents per week.

To date the government’s Special Programs for Peace Fund of the executive branch has spent CoP$14.5B (US$7.3) on facilitating the necessary conditions for the peace process in Havana, Cuba.

The Colombian military has fingered the Farc for a string of attacks on oil infrastructure following the end of month long unilateral truce that ended January 15. The attacks have led to oil spills that reached rivers in Putumayo.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up significantly this week at 47, the highest level since early March. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were above average in absolute terms but below average as a percentage of the total. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 28.8 and the 52 week average was actually down slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.6 incidents per week.