News and AnalysIs for

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down from last week’s recent peak at 33 but right at recent and long-term averages. Both last week and this week may be underestimated for reasons explained below. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were above average in absolute terms but below average as a percentage of the total. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 33.0 and the 52 week average was actually down slightly at 31.9 incidents per week.

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