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In recent statements, President Santos has been optimistic about the peace process with Farc. He said that “if there is will, this country will find that much desired peace.” He recalled that ever since he took office, he considered the peace process a possibility: “And so from day one, with great humility, but with much -and this is what I learned from Winston Churchill- perseverance, I began to weave the possibility of approaching the enemy, approaching FARC, to see if they wanted to find a negotiated solution and end this conflict.”

Incidents were up 38% again this week to 69 – the highest level we have ever recorded. This sent our 4-week Moving Average up 36% and it now sits at 44 incidents per week, back where it was at the beginning of December last year although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

Business newspaper La Republica reports that the mining and energy locomotive is slowing its advance due to terrorist attacks. In July 2012 the Cerrejon suffered seven attacks while Ecopetrol reported 49 to September of the same year. This caused sector goals in 2012 to not be fully met. “Without doubt the reported attacks influenced the outcome of mining GDP, which slowed last year,” said María Constanza García, National Mining Agency (ANM) president.

It was never an absolute cease fire. Colombia’s ombudsman (“Defensor del Pueblo”) reported 57 separate violations (see for example this RCN TV report) and the MinDefensa never stopped saying that the Farc continued to operate, sometimes through third-parties like criminal gangs or the country’s other major guerrilla group, the ELN. This latter qualification gave President Juan Manuel Santos leave to say the Farc had complied which perhaps was good diplomacy but we doubt even he believes that.

The truce ended as it started: blowing up the TransAndino pipeline.

Incidents were up 47% this week to 50, a level not seen since late November. This sent our 4-week Moving Average up 20% and it now sits at 33 incidents per week although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

National business magazine Dinero reports that the Colombian State Council, a superior court for government issues, declared today that Ecopetrol must pay CoP$1B (US$568,000) for damages from a propane gas pipeline attack in 1991. The attack occurred in the section between Puerto Salgar and Facatativá, in the rural area of the municipality of Albán in Cundinamarca. The explosion and resulting fire from escaped propane damaged agricultural facilities and crops in the surrounding area.

Government and Farc negotiators met today in Havana to resume peace talks. It was widely reported in the Colombian press that lead negotiator Humberto de la Calle admonished the Farc to stay focused on the agenda and to avoid attempts to practice public politics while still armed. Surprisingly perhaps, there was a positive response from the guerrilla negotiating team.

Incidents were up 42% this week to 34, the highest since December 8th. As our researcher said, it is clear that vacations are over. This sent our 4-week Moving Average up 10% having previously dropped continuously since the week of October 20th, except for a small blip the week of December 1st. It now sits at 27 incidents per week although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

After the January 4 attack on the Coveñas-Cano Limón pipeline in the Arauca department, Ecopetrol began manual oil extraction in the Arauca River. According to the company about 150 people are working on decontamination. Edward Portillo, departmental coordinator of the committee on risk management, told Caracol Radio “the extraction is with buckets and cans, and then Ecopetrol collects the crude and burns it”.

Incidents were up slightly again this week but well within recent variation. Our 4-week Moving Average has dropped continuously since the week of October 20th, except for a small blip the week of December 1st. It now sits at 24 incidents per week down from a peak of 58 back in October.