News and AnalysIs for

Mayor General (R) Jorge Rodríguez Clavijo addressed the Colombo-Canadian Chamber of Commerce this morning, and while he was realistic about the challenges, he was upbeat about the changes in the past 10 years and about the Santos government’s efforts in the field. He stayed away from political issues like the peace talks or the impact of Venezuela and kept to the facts.

Incidents were up this week to 44 just over the long term average. Again this week a higher than recent average number of the items were initiated by the Armed Forces which is a good sign. (On average during the past year, 75% of incidents have been initiated by the Armed Forces and this week the percentage is 87%.) Our 4-week Moving Average was flat at 42 incidents per week closer to what amounts to a long-term average.

Peace talks advance based on the approval of President Santos and new proposals from the FARC. In recent statements, Santos said: “My conclusion, after talking extensively with the committee that is in Havana, is that the process is going well: they are working on the construction of an agreement that never before has been done in Colombia.” Indeed, Santos was so optimistic with the progress that he said achieving peace is a matter of months: “This is how conflicts end, here and anywhere in the world: with serious and disciplined working on drafting an agreement with concrete commitments. If we keep the pace of the last few weeks, it is perfectly possible to complete the work in months.”

It is barely visible in the graph but February 2013 oil production in Colombia dipped to 997,581bd from 1,011,992bd in January 2013. We had predicted this based on the incidence of attacks just on the Caño-Limón pipeline and government ministers had shied away from predictions. What is not in this report by MinMinas is the fact that Pacific Rubiales claims that its production is running higher by over 30,000bd after royalties compared to December (probably over 37,000bd before royalties). That means the sum of the rest of the industry is producing less. From a MinMinas press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Incidents were down again this week to 40 just a little below the long term average. Again this week a higher than recent average number of the items were initiated by the Armed Forces which is a good sign. Our 4-week Moving Average was down very slightly and it now sits at 42 incidents per week closer to what amounts to a long-term average.

Peace talks advance with the visit of a congressional committee to Havana and demands by victims of the conflict. After a meeting with the National Unity Coalition in the Casa de Nariño, President Santos said: “I informed the National Unit Coalition how exactly this process is going, how it has been making progress, and what texts are agreed, in which, as has already been said, no previous process ever achieved a step of this nature.” Santos also commented: “The committee went (to Havana) for two very specific purposes: to show these legislative gentlemen progress and to point out the importance of recognizing the victims.” He added: “Of course it is still a long way to go and that is why the issue of time is so important.”

As broadly reported, the government and the FARC achieved the first real progress in the peace talks. In this regard, alias “Ivan Marquez” said: “We finished this round of talks with progress, which speaks well of our desire for peace, despite the unfounded assertions of President Juan Manuel Santos,” adding: “We are building an agreement that now is approaching about five pages (…) never has a peace process advanced so much.”

Incidents were up considerably again this week to 49 back to where things had been directly after the suspension of the Farc’s unilateral ceasefire. However most of the items were initiated by the Armed Forces which is a good sign. Our 4-week Moving Average was down very and it now sits at 43 incidents per week closer to what amounts to a long-term average.

This week was the week of the press statements and public speeches. The most important exchange was between the President and “Ivan Marquez” who heads or at least is the visible leader of the guerrilla team, but there was also an exchanges between Juan Camilo Restrepo, the Agriculture Minister and alias “Marquez”.

Incidents were down considerably again this week to 33 a level not seen since the ceasefire period back in December but there were fresh direct attacks on pipelines. Our 4-week Moving Average was down significantly and it now sits at 44 incidents per week closer to what amounts to the long-term average.