Guess we can say the rally is officially over. Brent hit a 2016 peak of US$41.20 for the week ending March 18 but has slid in each of the past two weeks. WTI hit its peak last week at US$40.44 but dropped 7.5% this week.
The continued commentary from the Naturgas conference (even though it was before Easter) and Canacol’s results meant the week’s news had a decided bias towards gas.
The recent oil production results for February, 2016 were published without commentary by MnMinas. Perhaps it is because there is only an Acting MinMinas, Maria Lorena Gutiérrez and her role is the electrical ‘crisis’.
Too much time on my hands during the Easter break, too much Janice Joplin and too much thinking about the Constitutional Court had definitely brought me down.
Colombia’s highest court has been very active lately, deciding on a number of community rights issues in a way that makes it difficult to plan long-term projects.
The Constitutional Court has said that the definition of ‘zone of influence’ that MinInterior has been using to determine if indigenous communities need to be consulted is too restrictive.
Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) published its results this week and that allows us to update our analysis of the NOC by Line-of-Business (LOB). By now it should not be a surprise that the Transport division is ‘carrying the load’ for other, weaker LOBs.
We had been saying that a number of the ANH’s recent initiatives were more likely to produce gas rather than crude oil.
It will not be official until May 2016 but with Ecopetrol’s reserves announcement this week, it seems to us that Colombian oil reserves will drop over 10% to something under 2,100 mmbl.
Discussions between OPEC and Russia on reducing production have borne some fruit. The graph shows weekly closing prices for Brent and WTI during the past year.
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