News and AnalysIs for

January ended with the above quote from the ELN’s supreme commander, alias Antonio Garcia. That’s how the second half of the month felt with over 100 casualties in Catatumbo and over 50,000 civilians displaced by the fighting.

While individual company results may differ, Colombia-focused stocks as a group and Ecopetrol in particular have suffered since the arrival of Gustavo Petro as president.

Last week we wrote our annual Fearless Forecasts article which focuses on the quantitative. But we also talk about the policy environment, really about politics and that proves especially important in the runup to elections in 2026. Readers ask us frequently about what comes next after August 7^th, 2026. We realized that the topic deserved an analysis of its own.

Time for our annual predictions article. Mostly focused on quantitative measures of the industry – prices, Capex, reserves, production – but also some comments on policy issues for 2025.

With this quote from High Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño, Colombia kicked off a month where virtually nothing of substance happened although the violence continued.

Statistically we do not have the final numbers. We do not even have the November numbers. And although we should be getting to the government quiet period for year-end holidays, anything could still happen. But we have a tradition of a “year-end wrap up” before the holidays so we can do our “Fearless Forecasts” in early January.

This month yet another peace process splintered with a small group staying at the table and the primary target withdrawing from the negotiations. Alias Ivan Marquez’s Segunda Marquetalia fired its negotiating team and (figuratively) went back to the mountains, leaving Alias Walter Mendoza without a mandate, except for his own troops.

How bad is it? ECP’s 3Q24 results came out recently and Net Income fell once again. The share price continues to fall. Reputable investment banks question the NOC’s governance and suggest the share price could fall further. But do the numbers justify the gloom and doom?

I was using the ANH’s online georeferencing tool the other day and started playing with the slider that shows the “mapa de tierras” for different time periods. That got me thinking about how the map had evolved over time and what that might say about the ANH.

This phrase of Clausewitz comes to mind this month as Mordisco gets more “stick” than in recent months while others, including the ELN, get offered “carrots”. Meanwhile, the Segunda Marquetalia’s alias Ivan Marquez has not returned anyone’s calls for month so the press speculated he was dead. High Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño assures us he’s just resting.