Admittedly not for Canacol, LNG (formerly Lewis), PetroSantander, or NG Energy whose revenues principally come from gas, but for the rest of the industry, Brent has an oversized impact on all the big strategic decisions. It is by far the principal “known unknown”.
Having spent most, perhaps all, of my working life involved in strategic planning in one capacity or other, I always start to think about next year as soon as the calendar turns over from the second quarter into the third. Not perhaps a fully formed vision of the coming years but some scenarios to define the space of possibilities.
Gas prices are going up as we have said many times recently but how far, how fast, and how will this process affect what domestic producers can hope to charge?
Three months ago, we asked our readers if we should continue with our monthly peace essays. Absolutely no one commented and we assumed we should stop. But we do get questions about the security situation, so we thought we’d do a mid-year assessment.
Gas supply continues to fall while gas demand rises. The obvious consequence is that imports rise and thus the average cost of gas. The Petro government has even stopped saying that everything is under control or threatening to fine E&Ps that “waste” gas. Where did it go?
We didn’t attend the ACP conference last week in Cali because of a prior commitment but we cannot imagine that there were a lot of smiling faces.
We cannot really blame Orlando Velandia and the ANH for spin-doctoring the recent oil and gas reserves report. His ultimate boss, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, doesn’t need any more bad press. But second derivatives, while interesting, do not tell the story.
I wrote reluctantly about Colombia’s apparently scandal-ridden NOC just two weeks ago. Reluctantly because I rarely find scandals to be strategic. I hoped I would not have to do it again this year. But independent board member, Monica de Greiff, resigned this past week and the press assumes that CEO Ricardo Roa will leave shortly.
This week’s Analyst’s Desk contribution is from periodic contributor Tomás de la Calle, who brings us the checkered history of Shell’s on-again-off-again relationship with Colombia.
We used to think that the Petro government and its Ecopetrol leadership were no more subject to scandals than any other Colombian government we have observed at close range. They’re not. They’re definitely worse. What implications (if any) for the industry, and those doing business with Ecopetrol?
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