News and AnalysIs for

We didn’t attend the ACP conference last week in Cali because of a prior commitment but we cannot imagine that there were a lot of smiling faces.

We cannot really blame Orlando Velandia and the ANH for spin-doctoring the recent oil and gas reserves report. His ultimate boss, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, doesn’t need any more bad press. But second derivatives, while interesting, do not tell the story.

I wrote reluctantly about Colombia’s apparently scandal-ridden NOC just two weeks ago. Reluctantly because I rarely find scandals to be strategic. I hoped I would not have to do it again this year. But independent board member, Monica de Greiff, resigned this past week and the press assumes that CEO Ricardo Roa will leave shortly.

This week’s Analyst’s Desk contribution is from periodic contributor Tomás de la Calle, who brings us the checkered history of Shell’s on-again-off-again relationship with Colombia.

We used to think that the Petro government and its Ecopetrol leadership were no more subject to scandals than any other Colombian government we have observed at close range. They’re not. They’re definitely worse. What implications (if any) for the industry, and those doing business with Ecopetrol?

Another fall in Ecopetrol’s earnings, more handwringing and more questions about the Petro government’s handling of the country’s most important economic asset. This time, someone even tried floating a rumor that CEO Ricardo Roa would step down after the board meeting.

This week a “potpourri” of varied, vaguely related small notes that, together, turn into a commentary on the state of the Colombian hydrocarbons industry.

Although next week we should start seeing 1Q25 results, we are just getting around to our summary of 2024 Average Realized Oil Prices, Netbacks and other operating key indicators for the Colombian industry. Brent was down slightly (3%) last year so what could we hope for in netback?

MinEnergia Edwin Palma says the Colombian government will write long-term gas import contracts because “Those increases in gas prices across the country must be reversed.” He is either misguided or misleading Colombians. We hope it is the former. Gas prices appear to be on the upswing and Colombians will pay a premium to eliminate the risk of gas prices going up.

Since Donald Trump became President of the United States on January 20^th, 2025 –really since he was elected in early November, 2024 – global stock markets have been on a magic carpet ride, from the highs of expectations of market-driven policies to the lows of fears of a tariff-war induced global depression. Share prices of oil and gas producers have ridden the same magic carpet, with Colombian companies pulled along by the same forces.