News and AnalysIs for

Yesterday’s presidential voting had a declared winner but the results are not definitive and the loser is contesting the result.

Or the dominance of Ecopetrol in Colombian statistics means what it does pulls the national conclusions. In any event, 2025 was another weak year for exploration and discoveries. Sharp pencils and improved recovery saved ECP’s reserves from falling.

The Iran War brought a welcome boost to oil prices that will benefit E&Ps throughout this year and into next. But will it also spur an end to the Internal Combustion Engine which has dominated transportation (and other applications) for over a century?

The expected candidates made it through to the second round and official government candidate Iván Cepeda got the approximately 40% of the vote that the polls said he would. But Abelard de la Espriella surprised by getting over 43% and coming first.

So earnings season comes to an end and, apart from a few special charges, a generally positive one. Brent over US$100/bl will do that. But, unsurprisingly perhaps, that is not what people are talking about

This week Ecopetrol published its financial results for the first quarter and the company received the usual criticism. We wrote briefly about our opinion – higher Brent means better results – and this long article will get deeper “under the hood”.

I had dinner this week with some industry members and, unsurprisingly, the election and what comes next – the topic of last week’s long article – was top of mind.

With the poll results from the end of April and with less than a month to the first round of the presidential elections in Colombia, it looks increasingly probable that Iván Cepeda, the candidate of the current administration’s political movement, will be the next president of Colombia.

Last night, while watching the news on TV, my wife asked me if I supported fracking. Given that her interests are in other fields, I knew the debate has become mainstream.

In a televised council of ministers in February, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said Ecopetrol would be bankrupt if oil fell below US$60/bl. We don’t expect Petro to get his sums right but we thought we’d better check, just in case.