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Rising guerrilla activity indicator

Rising guerrilla activity indicator

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were steady at 45, still above recent and long-term averages. Non-Armed-Forces-reported incidents were above average both in percentage and absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly, our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 42.0 and the 52 week average was steady at 31.2 incidents per week.

Monday, March 17th, 2014
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Peace Process week of March 10: Uribe on to the stage

Last Sunday Colombia voted in a new round of congressional leadership, and ex-President Alvaro Uribe picked up a Senate seat, giving the vocal opponent of the peace process a much large venue to voice his opinions than his usual tweets.

Thursday, March 13th, 2014
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Losing the battle in Arauca

Losing the battle in Arauca

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up sharply at 45 above recent and long-term averages. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were above average both in percentage and absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly, our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 37.5 and the 52 week average was also up slightly at 31.2 incidents per week.

Sunday, March 9th, 2014
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Peace Process week of March 3: Farc’s Southern block to the table

The Farc’s southern block, considered the more extreme faction within the guerrilla, now has a presence at the negotiating table in Havana through the arrival of Fabián Ramírez.

Thursday, March 6th, 2014
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Arauca security continues to loom over election

Colombia’s Minister of Defense Juan Carlo Pinzón has ordered an increase in security measures in Arauca during the run up to elections this Sunday and in light of attacks last week on Unión Patrótica presidential candidate Aída Avella.

Tuesday, March 4th, 2014
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USO calls for action on Barrancabermeja Refinery

The USO says that Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) continues to hedge and refuse to progress on the modernization of the Barrancabermeja Refinery, with the union saying that it is a must to have a “competitive” and modern refining facility.

Monday, March 3rd, 2014
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The government strikes back

The government strikes back

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were stable at 39 above recent and long-term averages. Non-Armed Forces-reported incidents were below average both in percentage and absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. However, our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 33.3 and the 52 week average was also down slightly at 31.1 incidents per week.

Monday, March 3rd, 2014
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Peace Process week of February 24: Santos also target of spying

This week revelations hit the press that President Juan Manuel Santos’s email account has been compromised and around 1000 emails were accessed by an unknown party,  just weeks after allegations of spying on peace delegates in Havana shook up the process.

Thursday, February 27th, 2014
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Arauca suffers wave of guerrilla attacks targeting roadways

Last weekend the Arauca Department suffered a number of attacks on public roadways and oil infrastructure after an uptick in activity from insurgent groups operating in the area.

Wednesday, February 26th, 2014
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Acacias dispute leads to terminated contracts

The continued conflicts in the municipality of Acacias and Castilla La Nueva have led to blockades, riots with police and now Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) has terminated 45 contracts associated with projects in the area.

Tuesday, February 25th, 2014
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