News and AnalysIs for

The Colombian government’s chief negotiator in Havana Humberto de la Calle came forward with a strong statement that the talks are moving forward in Havana, and even put a time-frame on an agreement.

Guerilla-initiated incidents dropped close to the average experienced during the previous Farc unilateral truce. Half were attributed to the ELN but it would be difficult to unequivocally call the rest ‘truce violations by the Farc’.

The USO claims workers have been pressured by anti-union forces in its attempt to negotiate entry to Pacific Rubiales Energy (TSX:PRE) through blackmail, and has taken to the international community to up pressure on authorities.

President Santos ordered a suspension of air raids against Farc camps in order to de-escalate the armed conflict and in response to the guerrilla’s unilateral ceasefire.

Since suspending its unilateral truce on May 22, 2015 until the new truce on July 20, the Farc held 372 armed actions, which the Peace & Reconciliation Foundation (Pares) says shows the importance of maintaining a cease fire for Colombians.

While it might not receive the attention as dramatic explosive attacks on pipelines, cable robberies are enough for Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) to lose nearly 25,000 barrels of oil in 2015 alone. The number of incidents doubled in the last year.

The last time the Farc started a unilateral truce (December 20, 2014) guerrilla-initiated incidents dropped dramatically to 4 or 5 per week, consistent with ELN-only events. The latest truce started last Monday and we had nine guerrilla-initiated incidents.

The Farc ordered its operatives to “cease all offensive action” from the early hours of Monday, July 20, as they had announced, and asked for “full guarantees” of the government of Juan Manuel Santos.

Following a flare up of violence at the beginning of the month after riot police intervened to remove protesters blocking the entry of machines for an oil exploration program, Caquetá remains tense and defiant.

The latest unilateral truce only started Monday (July 20^th) but both groups did not exactly ease into it with the total count up by 14 to 46, the highest we have recorded this year. The guerrilla increased their activity by 4 (by our methodology) and, after lagging behind in the past few weeks, the Armed Forces increased reported activities by 10.