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Security & Public

More talk of a ceasefire as peace talks resume

Talks resumed in Havana, but the dynamic is security at home. The FARC continue to enrage citizens through terrorism like school bombings but say such acts are the government’s fault because it refuses to consider a bi-lateral truce. The truce concept received a boost when long-time politician and commentator Alvaro Leyva suggested a ceasefire with international supervision might work. But he did not seem to be suggesting that the UN “blue helmets” be brought in but rather that selected celebrities and other worthies do the supervision. Considering the vast territory to be covered, that seems unfeasible.

Friday, February 22nd, 2013
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The Caño Limon Coveñas complex has reopened after protests

In an interview with RCN Radio, the mayor of Arauca, Luis Emilio Tovar, said that after a week of protests, the situation at the Caño Limon Coveñas complex was partially normalized: “The entrance to the Caño Limón complex was restored; we are already entering with a military convoy. The rest of the department is blocked but today the public transportation is available and people are coming and going to Arauca “.

Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
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Pipeline attacks continue

Pipeline attacks continue

Incidents were back down again this week to 43 but there were fresh direct attacks on pipelines. Our 4-week Moving Average was down slightly and it now sits at 52 incidents per week, back where it was in November last year and still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

Sunday, February 17th, 2013
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Peace talks “progressing well” except at home

The peace talks continue their somewhat strange rhythm with both sides smiling for the cameras and issuing upbeat communiqués but the Farc and the ELN returning to kidnapping and heinous civilian terrorism. The result is a dynamic where the President joins the Defense Minister in denouncing the acts, civil society hardens its views and yet the negotiators continue as if nothing were going on back home that might impact the talks.

Thursday, February 14th, 2013
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Peace worth about 16,000 barrels per day

Peace worth about 16,000 barrels per day

Colombia ran a kind of controlled experiment from the 20th of November to the 20th of January when the Farc observed a unilateral ceasefire. During this time, oil and gas companies were largely free to produce and transport what they wanted, limited only by geology, normal production difficulties like equipment breakdowns, community activism and the National Environmental Licensing Agency (ANLA). These months from November to January were also the three highest production months in the history of Colombia. Was this a glimpse at the peace dividend and if so, we asked, what was it worth?

Thursday, February 14th, 2013
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Two new attacks on pipelines

Direct infrastructure attacks numbers eight and nine took place in southwest Putumayo. One was directly on the TransAndino pipeline and the other on the feeder pipeline that brings oil up from San Miguel/La Hormiga.

Wednesday, February 13th, 2013
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President Santos tells the troops to keep pushing

With the peace talks underway and the Farc trying to get a bi-lateral truce, the question has been how firm is President Santos in continuing to pursue military options. The Farc certainly have launched some very high profile attacks – twice against the TransAndino pipeline since January 20th. Would the desire for peace trump the need to maintain pressure on the guerrilla? Here is a Presidential press release from a speech to the troops on the line. Translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Wednesday, February 13th, 2013
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Settling into a familiar pattern, unfortunately

Settling into a familiar pattern, unfortunately

Incidents were back down this week to 47 but they had settled into the familiar pattern of both location and type of incident. The ELN continues to try and get itself taken seriously through kidnapping. Our 4-week Moving Average up slightly and it now sits at 54 incidents per week, back where it was at the beginning of November last year although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

Sunday, February 10th, 2013
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Peace process summary for week ending Feb 8 2013

As we reported last week, the peace process has been marked by the optimism of Santos, the FARC’s claim of a National Constituent Assembly and the skepticism of the political right and other sectors. However, the FARC has stepped up attacks and kidnappings and Santos seems less optimistic.

Thursday, February 7th, 2013
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Farc turn to kidnapping to get the government’s attention

Farc turn to kidnapping to get the government’s attention

Incidents were back down this week to 50 but a number of high-profile kidnappings got the country’s attention. Our 4-week Moving Average up another 15% and it now sits at 51 incidents per week, back where it was at the beginning of November last year although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

Sunday, February 3rd, 2013
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