This month yet another peace process splintered with a small group staying at the table and the primary target withdrawing from the negotiations. Alias Ivan Marquez’s Segunda Marquetalia fired its negotiating team and (figuratively) went back to the mountains, leaving Alias Walter Mendoza without a mandate, except for his own troops.
This phrase of Clausewitz comes to mind this month as Mordisco gets more “stick” than in recent months while others, including the ELN, get offered “carrots”. Meanwhile, the Segunda Marquetalia’s alias Ivan Marquez has not returned anyone’s calls for month so the press speculated he was dead. High Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño assures us he’s just resting.
Four contractors working for an Ecopetrol subsidiary were kidnapped in Norte de Santander while performing maintenance on the Coveñas-Caño Limón (CCL) pipeline.
The ELN process is suspended! No wait. We reported that last month. But this month, Petro confirmed it. He’s given up on them. Still old news. The process with the Segunda Marquetalia almost fell off the rails but the two sides will meet now in Cuba. Didn’t we say that before? Maybe. Or something similar. The Clan? No change? Mordisco? Still blowing things up? Calarca? Not clear. Yesterday’s news.
A new attack on the Coveñas Caño Limón (CCL) oil pipeline, marks the 27th such incident since late August.
A new attack on the Coveñas Caño Limón (CCL) oil pipeline was reported, by Cenit, a subsidiary of Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC).
The government hasn’t scheduled the funeral but the ELN process died this month, even if only unofficially. The autopsy is pending and resurrection is not out of the question, but for now, the corpse is lying in the front room waiting for somebody to do something with it. Fighting has restarted. As we begin the third year of President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” initiative, everyone, including the government, wonders about a change of strategy.
Cenit announced that it has activated the Emergency and Contingency Plan (PEC) for the Coveñas Caño Limón (CCL) and Bicentenario (OBC) pipelines.
The Petro government is no less scandal-ridden than previous Colombian governments, despite its rhetoric during the campaign, but this month embarrassing incidents exploded within the peace process, making an already shaking situation even worse. One of these may even have contributed directly to problems in the ELN negotiations, which seem mere days away from suspension if not collapse.
Well maybe not as bad as last month, but bad. More news items than we have ever seen (not a good sign by itself) and all topics trending down. Only good news out of the Segunda Marquetalia negotiations gave any positive glimmers.
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