News and AnalysIs for

Most of you will pick this article up on Tuesday August 8^th 2023 and so Colombia will officially be in Gustavo Petro’s second year as president. Based on what he said in the campaign and announced in his inauguration speech we had certain expectations – perhaps fears. How much has really happened and what can we expect going forward?

I collected a few more articles this month (99) than last month (94) and Colombia had some dramatic incidents. But mostly this month was working through the details of the ELN ceasefire that starts the first week of August. More discussions in Buenaventura and trying to get back to the table with Alias Mordisco kept the High Commissioner and the President busy.

Last year, we guess BP tired of doing the industry’s statistical gathering for free. Whatever the reason, it spun out the division doing this work and the Energy Institute took over creating and publishing the Statistical Review of World Energy Data.

We used to joke about the Colombian government’s “Magic Formula” which it supposedly used to set gasoline and diesel prices. Events of the past few years have proven that, if there ever was a “magic formula”, governments abandoned it in the pandemic. Politicians set prices using political criteria (what a surprise!) and economics or finance play a limited role. Now the Petro government sends signals that it plans a radical restructuring of fuel pricing and we think it shows it / his thinking about the broader energy sector.

In its passion to avoid auctioning additional oil and gas exploration contracts, the Petro government wants to revive 39 blocks that the ANH has suspended at the companies’ request. Is there really an opportunity to “return the suspension request to sender” and create new reserves and production? And if so, how much production could be affected?

Early in the month, the Colombian government and the ELN signed a ceasefire protocol which supposedly will let them negotiate substantial issues without the pressure of violence. We’ll see how that goes.

… but it is really no one’s fault. OK. Maybe we can blame the Saudis since they say they can control oil prices. But maybe we can’t.

I have been sitting on this story since late May, not knowing whether to use it or where to use it. Technically, it is an energy-related story and so I should put it in ePowerColombia (ePC). But we deal with social conflict issues more in Hydrocarbons Colombia so it seems right to address the issue here.

We wrote about the 2022 Colombian reserves report a few weeks ago but that was more a reaction to the press release (focused on the Minister) and not a deep dive into the results. What is the real story?

Congress and the opposition once again called for Danilo Rueda’s head as violence flared and the dissident FARC process came apart even before the first formal meeting. The ELN process passed through some rocky moments when it looked like the government would suspend those dialogues as well, but the parties still talk in Havana.