News and AnalysIs for

Time for our annual predictions article. Mostly focused on quantitative measures of the industry – prices, Capex, reserves, production – but also some comments on policy issues for 2025.

With this quote from High Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño, Colombia kicked off a month where virtually nothing of substance happened although the violence continued.

Statistically we do not have the final numbers. We do not even have the November numbers. And although we should be getting to the government quiet period for year-end holidays, anything could still happen. But we have a tradition of a “year-end wrap up” before the holidays so we can do our “Fearless Forecasts” in early January.

This month yet another peace process splintered with a small group staying at the table and the primary target withdrawing from the negotiations. Alias Ivan Marquez’s Segunda Marquetalia fired its negotiating team and (figuratively) went back to the mountains, leaving Alias Walter Mendoza without a mandate, except for his own troops.

How bad is it? ECP’s 3Q24 results came out recently and Net Income fell once again. The share price continues to fall. Reputable investment banks question the NOC’s governance and suggest the share price could fall further. But do the numbers justify the gloom and doom?

I was using the ANH’s online georeferencing tool the other day and started playing with the slider that shows the “mapa de tierras” for different time periods. That got me thinking about how the map had evolved over time and what that might say about the ANH.

This phrase of Clausewitz comes to mind this month as Mordisco gets more “stick” than in recent months while others, including the ELN, get offered “carrots”. Meanwhile, the Segunda Marquetalia’s alias Ivan Marquez has not returned anyone’s calls for month so the press speculated he was dead. High Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño assures us he’s just resting.

And would it make a difference? MinEnergia Andres Camacho said that all gas produced should go to an end consumer suggesting they would audit fields to ensure no gas was “wasted” and thereby address the national shortfall. Is this really a solution? We looked at the data.

At the beginning of October, the oil and gas industry held its annual three-day summit, this time in Cartagena. Overlapping slightly, the Petro government also held a three-day summit called Feria de las Economias para la Vida (Economies for Life Fair) or FEV. The President and the Minister of Energy at least seemed to position it as the opposite of the Oil and Gas Summit.

The press has been chattering about Ecopetrol’s stock price for most of the third quarter. The ADRs were US$12.67 on June 24^th (the last ex-dividend date) and closed last Friday at US$8.74 down 31%. The Colombian government, Ecopetrol’s 88% owner, seems unconcerned.