Ecopetrol has pushed back against the more optimistic timelines attached to Colombia’s energy transition, publishing a forward-looking assessment – based on UPME data – that liquid fossil fuels will remain essential to the country’s energy matrix through at least 2040, even under transition scenarios, and that gasoline in particular is heading toward significant import dependence.
A post-mortem analysis by Asoenergía – the Colombian Association of Large Industrial and Commercial Energy Consumers – of the October 2025 maintenance shutdown of the SPEC LNG regasification terminal in Cartagena has revealed how poor supply planning drove residential gas contract prices to nearly three times their normal level in just a matter of days.
The Refinería de Cartagena (Reficar) returned to normal operations by March 24, 2026, nine days after an electrical supply failure struck the facility on March 15. Ecopetrol confirmed that all processing units are operating normally and that the supply of refined fuels to the national market was maintained throughout the incident.
We are rebuilding our fuel price database to capture more information while making it easier to update. Here is the first new chart, gasoline prices by city over time, here summarized to make it easier to read.
Writing on X on March 22, 2026, President Gustavo Petro outlined his government’s response to the prospect of oil prices climbing to US$180/barrel by May – a scenario flagged by Saudi Arabia – placing Ecopetrol at the center of a new fertilizer subsidy mechanism while firmly closing the door on gasoline subsidies.
Some readers may think we are ignoring the sector’s most important news: the Iran War and its impact on oil prices. Instead, we worry about reporting things you already know, especially those that are widely reported global stories. Here we update our price charts for those who use them and try to make relevant Colombia-specific comments on what are rapidly changing events.
The Petro government has formally ended gasoline subsidies paid through the national budget, while simultaneously defending an ongoing cycle of pump price reductions now complicated by a sharp spike in international crude prices driven by Middle East conflict.
Latin American refineries are adapting existing infrastructure to produce renewable fuels rather than constructing new facilities, with Colombia positioning itself to enter the emerging biofuels market through pilot programs and planned capacity expansion in Barrancabermeja.
Colombia stands to gain financially from rising oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict, as higher crude values would positively impact public finances through increased revenue from state oil company Ecopetrol.
The Ministry of Mines and Energy initiated an administrative sanction procedure against Ecopetrol for alleged non-compliance with the diesel supply plan for Nariño department, warning the situation could jeopardize fuel supply and result in sanctions against the company.
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