This week marks the start of a critical phase for the peace talks in Havana, Cuba. Save four incidents, the Farc kept their word on a month long truce over the holidays, which came to a close on January 15th. Meanwhile next Monday, January 20 the first round of 2014 gets moving, and time is running out.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up this week at 31 above recent and but below long-term averages. We found no non-Armed Forces reported events. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 25.5 and the 52 week average was unchanged at 32.7 incidents per week.
Although the Farc continues to threaten that they will break their unilateral truce if the Armed Forces keep harassing them, this was a quiet week. The overall count decreased to 20 this week, below recent and long-term averages.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down significantly this week at 16 well below recent and long-term averages. However, non-Armed Forces incidents were about twice the long-term average in percentage terms, about average in absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 26.5 and the 52 week average was down slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.8 incidents per week.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up this week at 34 above recent and long-term averages. However, non-Armed Forces incidents were only about half the long-term average. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 29.5 and the 52 week average was up slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.9 incidents per week.
Peace talks between the Farc and Colombian government restarted Tuesday in Havana, Cuba, kicking off the 18th round of negotiations and the last of 2013. Talk continues to revolve around the illegal drug trade. Meanwhile in Colombia a unilateral truce has gone into effect.
If it feels like the guerrilla have been more active (despite the Farc’s recent announcement of a truce) that is the reality. The graph shows our proxy for guerrilla activity: incidents not reported by the Armed Forces.
Just a day after a devastating attack on a police station in Inzá, Cauca that left eight dead, the Farc announced in Havana, Cuba a unilateral ceasefire for 30 days starting December 15, but said that more attacks could come before it goes into effect.
Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down 7% this week at 26 below recent and long-term averages. Non-Armed Forces incidents were about double the long-term average. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly, our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down to 26.0 and the 52 week average was down at 32.6 incidents per week.
This week the topic of the illegal drug trade continues to dominate the discussion in Habana, Cuba, with the Farc calling for legal coca, decriminalized drug use and participation of the US and European authorities in the discussion.
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