News and AnalysIs for

The final stretch of the Colombia’s great oil infrastructure: The Bicentennial Pipeline passes through Caño Limon, which is fraught with problems. Guerrillas attack it, while an indigenous community will not let crews in to repair it. The end result is missed shipments, 35,000bd of lost production worth millions a day and jobs for the local community. Who will right this situation?

Frequent attacks on the Caño Limon and Bicentennial Pipeline have claimed another causality: 500 jobs with Occidental de Colombia (Oxy), who has cut the positions as their pumping station in Arauca has been unable to keep up optimum crude levels for a month due to attacks from the ELN guerrilla, while another report says partner Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) has declared force majeure on shipments for the same reason.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up to 40, above recent and long-term averages. Non-Armed-Forces-reported incidents were below average both in percentage and absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 39.7 and the 52 week average was up slightly at 31.2 incidents per week.

This week President Juan Manuel Santos, who is up for the first re-election round in two months, said that none of the other candidates in the pool have the minimum experience required to handle the peace process.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up to 37, below recent but still above long-term averages. Non-Armed-Forces-reported incidents were above average both in percentage and absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 40.3 and the 52 week average was up slightly at 31.1 incidents per week.

With few changes to the deadlocked peace talks in Havana, the ongoing conflict in departments like Arauca overshadowed any bits of progress, despite an assurance from President Juan Manuel Santos that the talks are now at a mature state.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down to 33, below recent but still above long-term averages. Non-Armed-Forces-reported incidents were above average both in percentage and absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly, our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 40.5 and the 52 week average was down slightly at 31.0 incidents per week.

Another week without an agreement or much to say that would change the course of dwindling expectations for the peace process. With an election season in full swing, the hope for an early conclusion to the peace process is drawing less and less enthusiasm.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were steady at 45, still above recent and long-term averages. Non-Armed-Forces-reported incidents were above average both in percentage and absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly, our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 42.0 and the 52 week average was steady at 31.2 incidents per week.

Last Sunday Colombia voted in a new round of congressional leadership, and ex-President Alvaro Uribe picked up a Senate seat, giving the vocal opponent of the peace process a much large venue to voice his opinions than his usual tweets.