News and AnalysIs for

I concluded last month’s article by describing “some hope in an otherwise dismal month.” Yes, the ELN and the government did restart their meetings in Mexico but I don’t think I could come up with even a glimmer of hope for an even more dismal month.

A new attack on oil infrastructure caused an environmental emergency and raised great concern in the country.

Blockades in various regions and threats to oil companies are affecting the performance of the sector in Colombia.

Attacks against oil infrastructure are back and, as before, against the Coveñas/Caño-Limon (CCL) pipeline.

Mexico’s government is preparing for the second round of talks with the ELN, but the guerrilla group has given no clear signs of peace.

During the FARC peace process, we wrote weekly updates. If I had been doing that for the current ELN process, this month I would have written literally thousands of words “full of sound and fury / signifying nothing”.

Parex Resources (TSX: PXT) announced that it will suspend operations in Arauca. Here are the details.

We always face a dilemma when big political news comes out that we think our readers need to know: get it on the website quickly because it is important or wait a few days to see if it ‘blows over’. Holiday weekends complicate things as do periods when we are not publishing. With hindsight, we should have ignored the president’s press release about a ceasefire with the ELN.

Being December, this month normally has diminished expectations for progress on any issue. Traditionally, the political and judicial branches shut down around the 15^th and nothing much happens until after “Reyes” the holiday corresponding to the Epiphany in Anglo-Saxon countries and which Colombia celebrates on the Monday closest to January 6^th. On December 12^th, the government and the ELN released a brief press release with limited, mostly procedural, agreements and shut down for the holidays. Then things really started to happen.

As a gift to Colombians to start the New Year, President Gustavo Petro announced a six-month bilateral ceasefire with five major combatants from across the political spectrum (if one believes that politics really has anything to do with the current combatants). History does not suggest this declaration will mean very much in practical terms but we must be optimistic.