News and AnalysIs for

A seismic exploration program that kicked off in November in Putumayo has divided the Awa and Nasa indigenous groups, with the later fiercely opposed and the Awa in favor, and led to physical confrontations and a suspension of exploration activities.

President Juan Manuel Santos said via a televised address that he has told his negotiators to start discussing an indefinite bilateral cease fire with the Farc, and assured that 2015 “could be the year that the conflict stops”.

The overall count increased to 24 this week, below recent and long-term averages but non-Armed Forces reported incidents declined. This means the increase was due to Army-related activity.

The overall count decreased again to 18 this week, below recent and long-term averages. This week both Armed Forces and non-Armed Forces reported incidents declined.

The overall count decreased again to 23 this week, below recent and long-term averages. But as the graph shows, this was because of a decline in Armed Forces-reported activities. Our proxy for guerrilla-initiated incidents remained the same.

The Farc have grabbed headlines this week after unilaterally declaring a bilateral, indefinite cease fire.  That is, the guerrilla says that as long as it is not attacked by government troops, it will not attack either. But that starts on December 20^th and, in the meantime, they blew up the Transandino pipeline.

The overall count decreased to 33 this week, below recent and long-term averages. There were no direct attacks on infrastructure in press reports and the graph shows our proxy for guerrilla-initiated events also fell and took the short-term moving average with it.

The last two years the Farc has declared a unilateral truce over the holiday season, but thus far no such affirmation has came from the guerrilla. Meanwhile in Havana talks started again this week on Wednesday.

Army General Rubén Darío Alzate is back at home and after a few speed bumps, the talks will restart on December 10th. But the incident has left a scar on the talks, and questions persist about how the commander became the first general to fall into the hands of the Farc.

The count decreased again to 33 this week, below recent and long-term averages. However guerrilla-incidents show an unfortunate trend and there were a number of direct attacks on the industry.