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A new attack on the Coveñas Caño Limón (CCL) oil pipeline was reported, by Cenit, a subsidiary of Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC).

The government hasn’t scheduled the funeral but the ELN process died this month, even if only unofficially. The autopsy is pending and resurrection is not out of the question, but for now, the corpse is lying in the front room waiting for somebody to do something with it. Fighting has restarted. As we begin the third year of President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” initiative, everyone, including the government, wonders about a change of strategy.

Cenit announced that it has activated the Emergency and Contingency Plan (PEC) for the Coveñas Caño Limón (CCL) and Bicentenario (OBC) pipelines.

The Petro government is no less scandal-ridden than previous Colombian governments, despite its rhetoric during the campaign, but this month embarrassing incidents exploded within the peace process, making an already shaking situation even worse. One of these may even have contributed directly to problems in the ELN negotiations, which seem mere days away from suspension if not collapse.

Well maybe not as bad as last month, but bad. More news items than we have ever seen (not a good sign by itself) and all topics trending down. Only good news out of the Segunda Marquetalia negotiations gave any positive glimmers.

Former ombudsman (Defensor del Pueblo) Carlos Negret says the country is in the same situation it was in 1998. In Cauca, where he hails from, he is probably right. There are other similarities, like a peace process going nowhere it seems, but some differences.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said this in his X (Twitter) account after the country’s Armed Forces successfully downed 15 dissident FARC soldiers near hotspot El Plateado, Cauca. Maybe it was the president’s well-known flare for the dramatic. Maybe it was frustration. Maybe it was a message to the dissident FARC or the ELN or the Clan del Golfo or all. Maybe it was a mix of all three reasons.

Another month of low press activity – one more than February with two more days – and another ride on the rollercoaster although we moved neither closer nor further away from peace by the end. Both the ELN and alias Mordisco processes came off-the-rails during March and both also were righted by Easter. However, the ExFarc / Mordisco negotiations remain on very shaky ground with the ceasefire suspended and the Army preparing to dislodge the dissident leader’s gang from Jamundí.

With Colombian President Gustavo Petro now nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize, his desperation level has risen considerably while the counterparties have no intention or, indeed, pressure to concede on any point.

January was supposed to end with an extension of a ceasefire with the ELN. New head of the peace process, Otty Patiño even announced they had an agreement. But in an eerie repeat of last January’s debacle, whatever deal had been worked out was dismissed by alias Antonio Garcia, head of the guerrilla group. Near midnight on the 31^st, they agreed to keep talking but only until February 5^th.