News and AnalysIs for

Incidents declined again for a fourth straight week but the decline was slight so maybe we have found a new equilibrium.

Incidents are down again for the third straight week and are just about back to the level they were just before peace talks began. It would be very bad analytic practice to suggest a pattern from a single cycle but these results are consistent with a theory that things will get worse while the sides are actually at the table, going back to “normal” afterward.

Reported incidents were down this week for the second week in a row but the distribution of events was somewhat unusual with nearly half associated with the theft of crude or gasoline, or events near pipelines.

This is more fun than anything else at this point. We have taken our Security Incidents Near Hydrocarbons counts and color coded the departments. The more red the color the more incidents. The fewer, the “cooler” the situation and thus the department is “blue”. We have superimposed the outlines of the major basins for reference.

Last Friday, Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón addressed the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) conference in Cartegena. The speech was full of statistical information and the crowd gave him a standing ovation. This is the MinDefensa press release on the speech, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

We have been tracking incidents near hydrocarbons infrastructure since the beginning of 1Q12. The Colombian government and the Colombian Petroleum Association track events where the infrastructure itself is attacked. We use a radius of 20km and count any event that involves terrorism of one form or another. We believe this gives a more accurate picture of the risk associated with a particular area. It also allows us to assess the risk of zones that do not yet have infrastructure, such as an exploration block.

We are tracking security events that could be important for the Oil and Gas. These are not necessarily direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure but evidence of terrorist activity in zones of hydrocarbons interest. See our dedicated page here for a complete listing and look here for methodology.

October 10, 2012
After a union leader told RCN Radio that recent riots in Puerto Gaitan that killed three people were because “Pacific Rubiales has not kept its commitments”, the company was forced to issue a statement that this was not true. The company’s explanation fits the facts better: that a policeman ran over and killed a small child, the community wanted to lynch him, his fellow policemen defended him and a riot broke out.

On Saturday October 6, 2o12 the Colombian Armed Forces killed three men and a woman, wounding a minor in a municipality known variously as El Bordo and La Patia which is in Technical Evaluation Block Cauca 6. These are perhaps the only facts we know for certain.

We have started tracking security events that could be important for the Oil and Gas. These are not necessarily direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure but evidence of terrorist activity in zones of hydrocarbons interest. See our dedicated page here for a complete listing and methodology. We will only be publishing significant events and summaries in the Hydrocarbons Colombia page.