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We will report separately on MinMinas Renjifo’s comments to the annual CWC Colombia Oil & Gas Summit and Exhibition in Cartagena but there was a lively forum on exploration that got to the heart of the country’s current problems with reserve growth. The issue for the industry participants in a round table and especially for Talisman’s Chris Spaulding and Gran Tierra’s Duncan Nightingale is that Colombia is not drilling anywhere close to enough wells.

Statistical snapshots can be misleading – those with only one rig active might have just released several or have several ready to be activated in March – but the big numbers are probably stable. It is no surprise that Ecopetrol should be the largest but perhaps surprising that Pacific Rubiales should be so close. It is perhaps surprising that Gran Tierra has so few or that Canacol is not on the list (it is the operator for five exploration blocks and three production blocks). For those surprised to see coal operator Drummond on the list, it has permits for Coal Bed Methane exploration.

RCN Radio reports that according to Pacific Rubiales’ vice president Federico Restrepo, the company has increased its oil reserves thanks to projects like the La Creciente gas field (Sucre) and others developed in Peru. Pacific also increased its reserves to 517M proved barrels with other findings which will allow oil supplies until 2027.

Gulfsands is a newcomer to the Colombian scene having entered the market really only a few weeks ago when the blocks it won at the 2012 Round last October were finally signed, sealed and delivered by the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH). The company operates principally in the Middle East and North Africa with properties in Morocco, Tunisia and Syria. It recently updated its investor presentation to reflect the assignment of the blocks in Colombia.

The National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) published their (outgoing) president’s slides from his presentation to Cera Week, the big oil and gas investor show in Houston last week. What he said is just as important as what the slides say but there still are messages. Orlando Cabrales could not have displayed these slides and said things that radically deviated from their implicit message. Here we focus on unconventional resources for adding to reserves. The graph shows how important unconventional resources are to the ANH’s “Abundance” scenario for new reserves up to 2030.

Petrominerales announced its 2012 results this morning and had its conference call at 10:00 am Eastern. At the close, the share price in Toronto was down 8.4%. The company declared a Net Loss of US$54M in 4Q12 versus a profit of US$77M in 2011. For the year the company turned a profit of US$102M but that was 69% less than in 2011. The problem was production which was down 29%. This was offset by higher oil prices and better netbacks so funds from operations were only down 18%. As the graph shows, additions to reserves were minimal meaning 1P (proven) reserves are down 15%.

National business magazine Dinero reported that despite the country achieved an average production of 1,011,992 bpd; the priority now is to find oil reserves. Reserves in Colombia are of 2.259M barrels, which virtually allow a production for four or five years; however, according Amylkar Acosta, member of the board of Ecopetrol: “On average, in the world, the relationship between production and reserves is for a horizon of 10 years. But in Colombia, in 2012, that equation has declined for the fourth consecutive year, as production increases faster than the amount of reserves.

Firstly, Pacific Rubiales shareholders should not be concerned. Management did its job and proved (1P) and probable (2P) reserves both increased over 2011 thanks to the Z-1 Block in Peru and the acquisitions of PetroMagdalena and C&C Energy in Colombia. The company has made strategic plays in Papua New Guinea, Guatemala and Guyana that are not yet reflected in either proved or probable reserves. But stepping back and looking at the Colombian results to understand what is happening with the industry as a whole, the picture is far less rosy, as seen in the above graph.

Ecopetrol issued a brief press release with its year-end 2012 reserve figures. After rising 10% in each of the previous two years, Ecopetrol only managed a 1% increase in reserves in 2012. Revisions played an important role, representing 45Mboe or 17.5% of the additions. Enhanced recovery contributed 26% leaving new discoveries and extensions with 57% of the additions. In this early release of the numbers, the company did not separate Colombian from non-Colombian reserves. It only said that 95% came from the “mothership” versus 5% for subsidiaries which include Colombian subsidiaries like Hocol and Equion. Considering the importance the government puts on reserves and the importance of Ecopetrol to overall statistics, this result has to be a disappointment.

Recently the press picked up a statistic that none of the exploratory wells drilled in 2012 had entered into production. We did not publish the story because we knew there had been announcements of wells entering production or at least getting to the stage of production. Now National Hydrocarbons Agency head Orlando Cabrales has given the statistics seen in the above chart. This was part of an excellent presentation he made to the International Forum on Hydrocarbons 2103 jointly organized by Colombia’s best business school CESA and the Alberta School of Business.