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The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) says gasoline prices will fall in October based on a drop in its international price, although the exchange rate and biofuel prices meant diesel increased slightly, and also countered the decrease of gasoline.

A study from an energy consultancy found that the Colombian thermoelectric sector only has 34% of the natural gas it needs to purchase to produce the country’s energy during the El Niño weather phenomenon.

The IDB’s Ramón Espinasa spoke about oil prices last week at the Colombian Engineers’ Association (ACIEM) Enercol 2015 conference. He had predictions for short-term price movements but his comments on the current situation were similar to those we take from this graph.

Combine insufficient infrastructure, blockades, attacks and high tax rates with a crude sales price of US$30, which some speculate could be a reality in the near future, and Colombia’s oil business loses all of its shine.

The last time we did this chart we concocted a marvelous story about Latin American customers wanting their oil without a heavy dose of Bolivarian rhetoric. Maybe we spoke too soon. Maybe not.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) announced a slight drop in both diesel and gasoline prices for the month of September, moved by declines in international fuel prices. However the strengthening of the US dollar against the peso and rises in biofuel costs kept the final price from falling further at the pump.

The current fall in oil prices, and commodities in general, has plenty in common with the price crisis felt in 2008. But there are several key differences that show today’s situation is the end of a super-cycle for commodities.

Much has been said about the formula used to determine monthly gasoline and diesel prices, especially since the fall of international crude prices. But it is becoming clearer that the Brent and WTI have only a small impact in the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) calculations.

Despite a constant message from the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) that a rising price of biofuels has counteracted falling oil prices to keep fuel prices higher, the president of the biofuels association Fedebiocombustibles Jorge Bendeck says its more complicated than that, and increasing the mix would actually drop prices.

After repeated increases, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) said that diesel prices will fall to CoP$7756 (US$2.66) a gallon in Bogotá, a CoP$117 or 1.4% drop. Gasoline prices however will increase.