News and AnalysIs for

For the third week in a row counts were identical at 23 below recent and long-term averages. This was an average week for non-armed forces reported/guerrilla-initiated incidents. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down to 24.5 incidents (down for the eighth straight week) but the 52 week average was essentially stable at 39.0 incidents per week.

This week saw the close of another round of talks in Habana, but the news surrounding the peace process came from Colombia again as accusations that the Farc are orchestrating social unrest in Colombia took center stage. Meanwhile the political spectrum positions for an upcoming election and reacts to the ongoing peace dialogue.

The Natural Gas Association (Naturgas) says that proposed changes that would institute a system of public auctions to set wholesale prices as proposed by Colombia’s Energy Regulatory Commission and Gas – CREG would lead to price increases and opposes the system.

Parex made a somewhat unusual midyear announcement of its reserves and a more usual announcement of its 2Q13 production. Both stories are very good but the reserves story is spectacular. By the close on Thursday, July 11 2013, the stock was up 17% from its Tuesday close.

GasWith an eye on formalizing a disperse sector that has consolidated over the last three years, 12 propane distributors representing 70% of the market have agreed to form a new industry association to represent their interests.

The municipal council members of Villavicencio have sent a formal request to Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos to debate issues surrounding hydrocarbons exploration and extraction in the surrounding area.

Canacol issued an operations update announcing a new well in production and positive overall momentum. MinMinas and investors took interest.

The construction of the Bicentennial Pipeline (OBC) is on its final stretch and is now only 1500 meters from completion as the announced launch in August approaches.

Intercepted communication between organizers of the Farc and the clandestine Communist Party suggests that the guerrilla faction could be involved in the planning of a general strike starting July 20.

The Colombian government has approved an Ecopetrol bond issue of up to COL3T (US$1.556B), a move analysts say will bolster the dollar against the Colombian peso.