News and AnalysIs for

Last Friday Ecopetrol announced its financial results and despite the spin – “second best profits in history” – they were in fact down from 2011. Consolidated Net Income was down 4.4% over 2011 and the chart shows this was not caused by accounting, foreign exchange or other easier to rationalize explanations. These non-cash items actually improved results since Operating Income was down 6.4% and EBITDA down 3.2%: it was operations that sunk the ship. And this despite a 4.4% increase in consolidated revenues and a 4.1% increase in crude oil production. The only hero in this story is Exploration and Production which produces almost all of the profits and even it saw margin declines in 2012. Most of the other businesses Ecopetrol is involved with do not. If this were a normal company, institutional shareholders would be screaming to break it up.

The Emir of Qatar visited Colombia last week and he and President Santos signed a number of agreements for intergovernmental cooperation. Although the agreements spanned a range of activities including sport, we found this press release on the MinMinas web page. Translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

The National Hydrocarbons Agency seeks comments by Friday, February 22, 2013 on a proposed change to royalty payments for fields where payment in kind is difficult. They call such areas Difficult to Recover Production Fields (CPDR) and rather than payment in kind, operators are to pay in cash based on production and recent average pricing.

The USO news this week highlighted an ongoing fight about the December 11th death of Milton Rivas, a union leader in Puerto Gaitan. Public officials claim his death was the union’s fault something obviously denied by the leadership. The USO’s president went to Washington to claim Rivas’ death was a result of deteriorating working conditions caused by the Free Trade Agreement with the US, a claim that makes no sense whatsoever considering this is Puerto Gaitan and not Caño Limón.

Multiple sources in the Colombian news media reported that Pacific Rubiales has signed an agreement with the National Agency to Overcome Extreme Poverty (ANSPE) and the Puerto Lopez mayor’s office, to help eradicate poverty in this municipality.

Incidents were back down again this week to 43 but there were fresh direct attacks on pipelines. Our 4-week Moving Average was down slightly and it now sits at 52 incidents per week, back where it was in November last year and still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

As reported by internet news site Vox Populi, Orlando Cabrales, president of the ANH, said that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the sector increased by between 28% and 30% in 2012 compared to 2011 figures. While in 2011 there was FDI of US$5B, in 2012, according to projections by Fedesarrollo and the Central Bank, the FDI was between US$6.4B and US$6.5.

The peace talks continue their somewhat strange rhythm with both sides smiling for the cameras and issuing upbeat communiqués but the Farc and the ELN returning to kidnapping and heinous civilian terrorism. The result is a dynamic where the President joins the Defense Minister in denouncing the acts, civil society hardens its views and yet the negotiators continue as if nothing were going on back home that might impact the talks.

Colombia ran a kind of controlled experiment from the 20th of November to the 20th of January when the Farc observed a unilateral ceasefire. During this time, oil and gas companies were largely free to produce and transport what they wanted, limited only by geology, normal production difficulties like equipment breakdowns, community activism and the National Environmental Licensing Agency (ANLA). These months from November to January were also the three highest production months in the history of Colombia. Was this a glimpse at the peace dividend and if so, we asked, what was it worth?

RCN Radio reports that in Meta department the resources from 2011 royalties were wasted. This was stated by the Comptroller General, who reported that in Puerto Gaitán US$13M was invested in aqueducts that currently do not work. In the report, the Comptroller said, “the fiscal findings are related to the uselessness, neglect, deterioration and lack of functioning of priority works for the community, that after their construction are not fulfilling the function for which they were planned” .