News and AnalysIs for

We showed a version of this graph in our November Inner Circle Monthly report which shows the two most common global benchmars, WTI and Brent and the Average Realized Oil Price in Colombia, as measured by those operators which report pricing. The Unweighted Average lies almost perfectly between average WTI and average Brent. The production-weighted Average is heavily pulled by Ecopetrol and shows more variation. The dotted lines show our estimate of these values for 4Q12 and our (admittedly early-days) projection of the numbers for 1Q12.

Business newspaper Portafolio.co reports that according Luis Pacheco, Pacific Rubiales Planning vice president, the company could reach US$3.9B revenue in 2012; this after royalties and payments to partners. In this way the company would achieve a 14.7% increase over 2011 figures. Pacheco made these statements during the conference Colombia Genera, of the ANDI.

According to national radio station W Radio there is a tense work environment at the National Environmental Licensing Agency (ANLA) due to the pressure exerted by managers on technicians responsible for making environmental licenses studies. The radio station said it has documents that prove that legal and administrative employees of the ANLA modify the technical concepts of biologists, environmental engineers and forestry engineers to help companies obtain licenses more easily. The technicians say that non-technical employees are not authorized or qualified to make such changes. In addition, some technicians said there are managers asking them for 300 environmental concepts for wells in a 15 day period.

The USO is back protesting the creation of Cenit SAS, the Ecopetrol spinout that holds the state-owned oil company’s infrastructure assets. This would seem to be a train that left the station a long time ago but it does give the union a soapbox to preach from. In other news, the USO continues to target Ecopetrol contractors to get their workers back into the union fold.

Incidents were back down this week to 47 but they had settled into the familiar pattern of both location and type of incident. The ELN continues to try and get itself taken seriously through kidnapping. Our 4-week Moving Average up slightly and it now sits at 54 incidents per week, back where it was at the beginning of November last year although still down from a peak of 58 back in October.

As we reported last week, the peace process has been marked by the optimism of Santos, the FARC’s claim of a National Constituent Assembly and the skepticism of the political right and other sectors. However, the FARC has stepped up attacks and kidnappings and Santos seems less optimistic.

MinMinas Federico Renjifo chose a neutral audience to make his first major policy statement of the year. The ANDI is the country’s major businessperson’s association and while there may have been members of the oil services industry in the audience we doubt there were many oil and gas company CEOs. He thus picked an audience that was not going to fight back if he said something that veered too far from the actual situation. From a MinMinas press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

There is concern in the oil sector about the possibility that Congress increases taxes on oil companies. Regarding this, Alejandro Martínez, Colombian Petroleum Association president, told a press conference: “We are extremely concerned about pending bills in Congress because these would increase the state’s share in the oil revenue, taking it from 70% to 90%, making Colombia lose competitiveness and attractiveness as an investment destination”.

Minority shareholders of Ecopetrol proposed Roberto Steiner Sampedro as an independent member of the company’s board. Steiner will be included for the position in the ninth row of the sheet that the Ministry of Finance will submit to the General Assembly of Shareholders. To this end, the minority shareholders submitted a “Shareholders’ Agreement” signed by representatives of seven pension funds.

Interoil has been telling the market they are getting out of Colombia for several months now. Yesterday they announced the sale of their exploration assets to Trayectoria Oil and Gas. Interoil says they received US$2M in cash for its working interest in the Altair and COR-6 blocks and avoided US$26M in exploration costs. The transaction is subject to approval by creditors and the ANH. Their working interest in the producing block LLA-47 is still on the market.