News and AnalysIs for

Our Powerpoint presentation on the country’s hydrocarbons industry is a wealth of information for those starting out or needing a few facts.

Our Monthly Report for February 2013 is now available for download (see below).

As broadly reported, the government and the FARC achieved the first real progress in the peace talks. In this regard, alias “Ivan Marquez” said: “We finished this round of talks with progress, which speaks well of our desire for peace, despite the unfounded assertions of President Juan Manuel Santos,” adding: “We are building an agreement that now is approaching about five pages (…) never has a peace process advanced so much.”

Firstly, Pacific Rubiales shareholders should not be concerned. Management did its job and proved (1P) and probable (2P) reserves both increased over 2011 thanks to the Z-1 Block in Peru and the acquisitions of PetroMagdalena and C&C Energy in Colombia. The company has made strategic plays in Papua New Guinea, Guatemala and Guyana that are not yet reflected in either proved or probable reserves. But stepping back and looking at the Colombian results to understand what is happening with the industry as a whole, the picture is far less rosy, as seen in the above graph.

As reported by business newspaper La Republica, Colombia will participate in the Mining Investment Show, to be held in Toronto, Canada. A Ministry of Mines and Energy committee, the National Mining Agency and Invest in Bogota, a subsidiary of the Chamber of Commerce will attend.

As reported by National business newspaper Portafolio, Fitch Ratings Colombia, a rating agency, estimated that the company Terpel will invest US$895 in the next five years, due to expected increases in sales.

The USO news this week is heavy on discontent at refineries with Cartagena refinery determining a strike date and Apiay refinery workers worried about losing their jobs. Ecopetrol plans to close the Apiay facility because of low productivity but workers accuse management of the problems. More workers in Meta face an uncertain future after Incoequipos, an oil services subcontractor closed its doors.

Incidents were up considerably again this week to 49 back to where things had been directly after the suspension of the Farc’s unilateral ceasefire. However most of the items were initiated by the Armed Forces which is a good sign. Our 4-week Moving Average was down very and it now sits at 43 incidents per week closer to what amounts to a long-term average.

This week was the week of the press statements and public speeches. The most important exchange was between the President and “Ivan Marquez” who heads or at least is the visible leader of the guerrilla team, but there was also an exchanges between Juan Camilo Restrepo, the Agriculture Minister and alias “Marquez”.

Norte de Santander is a crude producing department but it has no refineries. It is closer to Venezuelan refineries than Colombian ones and there is a large problem with contraband because Venezuelan gasoline is subsidized and Colombian is not. Thus service stations in the northeast have developed legally sanctioned supply chains into the neighbor country. Because of the turmoil in its neighbor, the Colombian government has stepped in to assure supply. From a MinMinas press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.