News and AnalysIs for

The count dropped again to 22 below recent and long-term averages. This was an above average week for non-armed forces reported/guerrilla-initiated incidents. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down to 22.8 incidents (down for the ninth straight week) but the 52 week average was essentially stable at 38.8 incidents per week.

Call it a lull or a deadlock, this week brought words of advice from consultants, former presidents and the Farc, as the recess between peace roundtable talks in Havana continue. Where it all is going, still remains to be seen.

Representatives of companies that operate in Casanare and Arauca met with armed forces and police officials to discuss actions following incidents that affected public order and the Caño Limon pipeline.

For the third week in a row counts were identical at 23 below recent and long-term averages. This was an average week for non-armed forces reported/guerrilla-initiated incidents. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down to 24.5 incidents (down for the eighth straight week) but the 52 week average was essentially stable at 39.0 incidents per week.

This week saw the close of another round of talks in Habana, but the news surrounding the peace process came from Colombia again as accusations that the Farc are orchestrating social unrest in Colombia took center stage. Meanwhile the political spectrum positions for an upcoming election and reacts to the ongoing peace dialogue.

Intercepted communication between organizers of the Farc and the clandestine Communist Party suggests that the guerrilla faction could be involved in the planning of a general strike starting July 20.

Unusually, counts were identical to last week at 23 below recent and long-term averages. This was an average week for non-armed forces reported/guerrilla-initiated incidents. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down to 26.5 incidents (down for the seventh straight week) but the 52 week average was stable at 39.2 incidents per week.

This week the peace process started again in Havana on July 1st, but the headline this week was the entry of the ELN, a revolutionary group which split from the FARC decades ago, but after a meeting between leaders of the two guerrilla forces in June, is now lining up to take a role in the peace process.

Counts were down for the third week in a row to 23 below recent and long-term averages. This was a much lighter than normal week for non-armed forces reported/guerrilla-initiated incidents. Our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down to 31.3 incidents (down for the sixth straight week) but the 52 week average was up slightly again to 39.2 incidents per week.

The 10 demands and subsequent additions by the Farc last week made a big splash and Colombia’s major political figures left no doubt that these new demands, which greatly widened the agreed agenda, were not on the table for discussion.