News and AnalysIs for

Security incidents jumped sharply last week but as has been the case lately, the results felt worse qualitatively than quantitatively.

President Juan Manuel Santos dispatched his brother Enrique Santos to Havana after differences on the final cease fire and the process to physically consolidate guerrillas in the post-conflict transition stalled the negotiating process.

Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) says that a group of community members protesting a new hiring system –- an alternative to the notorious Community Action Committees (JACs) –- have turned violent and forced contingency measures at the Coveñas port.

The deadline agreed to back in September 2015 of March 23^rd is coming up quick, and President Juan Manuel Santos has been insisting that it be met, but has also recently sought to find some wiggle room as a final agreement by that date looks unlikely.

A recent Gallup poll found that Colombians have a more pessimistic view of President Juan Manuel Santos and the peace process, a serious obstacle if the government hopes to approve an eventual agreement in a public referendum.

The ELN continues to be the source of guerrilla-initiated incidents and while the count of reports near oil and gas infrastructure went down by 2 there were more incidents in non-oil-and-gas areas than the previous week. Armed Forces-reported incidents went down by 9 although they remained well above the 2016 average.

Images of Farc negotiators in public, accompanied by armed guerrillas in a public plaza in La Guajira for a peace campaign, led to  condemnation by the government and a halt in talks. With the urging of the guarantor nations, the impasse was resolved, but the incident demonstrates how fragile the process is at this point.

Guerrilla-initiated incidents maintained last week’s level (although two were away from oil and gas infrastructure) but the Armed Forces increased their activities in 50%, stepping up the intensity between them and the ELN.

A lead Farc negotiator again rejected a plebiscite as the means to approve a final peace agreement, while congress has started to debate a bill which would cover many of the post-conflict special measures.

As the pre-negotiations with the ELN stumble on certain items (like the location of the talks), the guerrilla have stepped up the violence to try to weaken the government’s resolve.