News and AnalysIs for

The lack of a concrete advance or a clear timeframe in the peace process is starting to take a significant toll on support for the process with the Farc, as a recent Gallup poll showed 66% of Colombians think the process is not on track.

While the number of attacks on the Coveñas/Caño Limón pipeline has fallen dramatically, Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) is facing the high cost of illegal valves and pipeline theft.

This week, we recorded the highest number of guerrilla-initiated incidents since last July. And they included the first large-scale attack on the Coveñas / Caño-Limón pipeline in some time. This will not be good for the peace process with the ELN nor for May production results.

President Juan Manuel Santos paid a visit to Ecuador to deliver aid to the victims of the recent earthquake, and confirmed that the peace negotiations with the ELN would start there.

The ELN guerrilla has an enormous debt with Colombians due to the damage to the environment from its continued attacks over the years, said the government’s lead negotiator in talks with the group, Frank Pearl.

The Colombian government said it raised US$530M in 2015 for the post conflict transition, while the Economist claims that the Farc is sitting on a secret stash of as much as US$10.5B, a claim the guerrilla denies.

Authorities and the El Centro settlement have agreed to form six work groups to talk local hiring, and protestors have lifted blockades of La Cira Infantas in Santander.

There were small signs of advances in the talks with the Farc this week, with the final details of some of the most delicate issues -referendums, Farc prisoners abroad and the post-conflict judicial process- in discussion.

Following an armed strike by the Clan Úsuga paramilitary group last week, the Farc have demanded the government do more to combat these groups, and say that the issue is stalling process in Havana.

With the announcement of formal peace talks between the ELN and the Colombian government, we expect to see a qualitative shift in security results starting next week. So this graph will be our new ‘benchmark’.