News and AnalysIs for

No we are not going to give the inside scoop on who is buying whom. If we had that information (reliably) we would not be publishing a newsletter.

Editor’s Note: Warren Levy is familiar to just about everyone in the Colombian, and indeed Latin American, industry which he has been around for over 20 years.

This week’s graph shows rather dramatically why gas is attracting great interest in Colombia: since 4Q14, gas netbacks have been higher than oil netbacks.

I saw a headline last week that referred to the ‘robbery’ of Reficar. In English, this phrase would imply that an individual or individuals had benefitted illegally from the project.

With the Coveñas / Caño Limón pipeline back in full service and so Arauca producing normally, we had expected 4Q15 crude oil production to be higher than 1mmbd.

Oil prices have risen the last two weeks in a row but it is too early to call “Victory”. January 2016 was, after all, another month when oil prices slid further, hitting new recent lows.

Although the crisis alarms seem to have moved from the front pages, international weather agencies believe that El Niño will extend through June 2016, so the natural gas requirements to produce electricity at the country’s thermos-electrical plants are still an important consideration with serious implications for the energy grid.

We extended our quarterly analysis of Colombia Committed stocks from December 31, 2015 to January 20, 2016 so we could capture any significant movement due to the deeper slide in oil prices so far this year as well as Pacific E&P’s (TSX:PRE) roller coaster this month.

I have been back from holidays for less than two weeks; we resumed normal HCC publishing on the 11^th of January.

Although the country managed to finish above 1mmbd for the year, the second half was not as sparkling as was expected considering first half performance. Oil prices continue to slide and so shut-in fields are a possible explanation.