Normally, the catch-phrase “Quiet. Too quiet” is a foreboding of something bad about to occur. But now it looks like this quiet security period will extend a long time, maybe as the ‘new normal’. Originally, we published this report weekly. Then we dropped to monthly and then quarterly, then only when there was something interesting to say. This quarterly article shows very little has changed or is likely to change. For that reason, we have decided that this is our last report.
Collaborator Tomás de la Calle volunteered to go to Cartagena for the annual natural gas sector conference. Here is his report on the event and, as an extra bonus, his opinion about the UPME’s second re-gasification plant project and stimulating domestic exploration and production.
Financial results for 4Q17 are in and crude oil netbacks are up. Hardly surprising given the run up in oil prices, but it looks like not all the growth in Brent is passing through directly to operating profitability.
Since we started Hydrocarbons Colombia, we have reported on a number of good-sized scandals, ones that have lasted more than a couple of days. The latest is the escape of oil from the La Lizama well. This one could have more profound impacts on the industry than any previous media circus.
Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) is unique among Colombia-focused operators for many reasons but one is that it is the country’s only integrated oil company, lacking just retail distribution for it to cover the entire value chain. Luckily, the NOC publishes results by Line of Business (LoB) that allow us to understand what is happening below the top-line.
This past week, ANH head Orlando Velandia reiterated 900 mbd as his 2018 target for crude oil production. Unfortunately, February production also came out this week and that was only 823 mbd. Recently, I came across an article we wrote just over a year ago (late January 2017) and we seem to be in exactly the same spot we were then.
Just over a month ago we looked at the UPME’s latest demand forecasts, focusing on the potential supply shortfall. This time, we look a little deeper at demand especially where it comes from, both in terms of sector and region.
The Colombian Petroleum Engineers Association (ACIPET) has been a vocal advocate for rational debate on many of the industry’s social and environmental issues. Late last week they issued this press release on the fracking debate and kindly gave us permission to produce an English translation.
Certainly, one of this year’s top stories so far has been the resumption of attacks by the ELN after the end-of-year truce. But after a particularly violent first week, things have settled down somewhat.
There was much prior speculation about perverse outcomes and a colossal logistical failure but in the end the expected happened and the top two ranked Presidential candidates made it through their respective primaries. The elections for Congress and Senate were more interesting.
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