Unless your idea of a winter vacation was a solo trek across Antarctica or the Sahara Desert, you are aware that 2020’s top story so far is the Coronavirus aka Covid-19. While health concerns are primary, the economic impacts are not inconsequential.
Two weeks ago we looked at the UPME’s demand scenarios, pointing out that 70% of the forecast growth comes from the Oil+Gas sector, a fact we found surprising, especially considering that the forecast was not well explained and seemed to be way off in the first year of the study (2019). This week we look at supply and the ‘balance’ or the difference between supply and demand.
So my first fearless prediction did not come true. I said in December this article would be published in January and it is already nearly the end of February. Please do not take this as an indicator of my forecasting ability.
The UPME recently released its forecasts of natural gas supply and demand. It concludes a second regasification plant is required and it has to be in Buenaventura. Surprise! Wow! Amazing! Did not see that coming! Thank goodness Colombian taxpayers can count on an impartial agency like the UPME to objectively study these important issues.
Gas is a ‘hot topic’ presently with concerns about self-sufficiency and the right strategies to address them. In a very timely contribution, Tomás de la Calle returns with a multi-part article on the Colombian gas market.
With oil prices on a roller coaster since the start of the new year, we thought we should update our usual graphs. Last presented in September, the panaorama has changed considerably.
Or even in Latin America. The headline might have upset your board members or institutional investors when it appeared a few weeks ago but it was false. Colombia is not exactly a shining example of public service morality but not the most corrupt in the world or even the region.
Our index of shares of Colombia -focused companies is rapidly becoming a set of special cases – a small set which has just got smaller.
As a belated Christmas gift perhaps, the Energy Ministry published a draft decree to govern Integrated Investigation Pilot Projects for unconventional technologies (PPII). The public has until Monday January 20th, 2020 to comment.
About half the ‘end-of-year’ articles I see look forward and half look backward. I like to do both as we cross into a new year, some (most?) say into a new decade. This week I look backward and then about one month from now with the first What We Think article of 2020, I will look forward.
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