News and AnalysIs for

In a dramatic shift over just a few weeks, the rain brought back Colombia’s hydro resources, the halted Guatapé plant started working again and thermal generators slashed their natural gas purchases. Now paired with a global surplus of gas, low prices make some of Colombia’s strategic projects, especially offshore, look uncertain.

While the national and local governments continue to roll out the natural gas network, there are still many municipalities functioning with propane, which suffers from higher prices and an informal distribution network. No quick solution is in sight.

GasIn mid-October of last year, we published an article where Naturgas president, Eduardo Pizano promised an additional 130mmcfd of gas would become available in 1Q16. It might have become available but it did not translate into additional demand.

GasThe municipal utility firm of Medellín (EPM) will follow up on its CoP$80B investment on natural gas infrastructure in 2015 with another CoP$50B this year, part of its plan to develop this strategic business.

GasIn March 2016 the amount of energy supplied by thermal generators amounted to 51% of Colombia’s energy grid, while hydro accounted for 43%.

In 2012 Canacol Energy (TSX:CNE) made a shift away form crude production to natural gas after buying Shona Energy. Its CEO Charle Gamba said at the time the idea was to gain a bit of stability, and today that decision has paid off.

The Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME) has been moving forward with plans to tender the expansion of gas pipelines to improve the supply of the gas, and now details on the organization of the eventual network have emerged as well.

GasThe head of Colombia’s Natural Gas Association (Naturgas) Eduardo Pizano said that that Colombia still has reserves for another 12 or 13 years, but that the exploration pace must speed up, and new discoveries in the Caribbean must be produced to attend to Colombia’s growing demand.

Traditionally, Colombians have thought of their natural gas as coming from La Guajira.  Even when we started HCC in 2012, La Guajira represented 51% of gas production. But by 4Q15, that figure had dropped to 31%. Casanare is the new leader.

GasGas production has been above its 12-month moving average for at least four months and so what had been a strong decline in the trend-line has moderated. Could we be seeing the impact of new discoveries by Canacol (TSX:CNE) and greater production in Casanare?