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The fall in oil prices has caused a rethinking of budgets and projects, cutting into the potential for unconventional resources but not stopping any programs completely.

Considering a fall of 70% and 80% in seismic work and exploratory wells and declining mature fields, Colombia’s daily production could fall as low as 750,000bd in just two years, says the executive director of Colombian Association of Oil Engineers (ACIPET), Carlos Leal.

Little or no information on biodiversity in Colombia’s offshore blocks and lack of a clear regulatory framework for offshore are two of the issues that are getting more attention following two offshore discoveries made by Ecopetrol over the last year.

Falling exploration activity remains one of the biggest concerns for the industry’s long term potential in Colombia, and the reduced goals set out by the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) and the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP) confirm this.

Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) and Anadarko (NYSE:APC) have announced a hydrocarbons discovery at their Caribbean offshore exploratory well Kronos-1, a development which has the government hailing that its offshore strategy is working while other industry members urge caution as the fruits of the find are still years to come.

Offshore is an important frontier for the Colombian industry, but the high costs and long time before a successful find sees commercial production weaken its value for the country and industry, so more incentives for onshore exploration are needed, say experts and industry players.

We recently looked at analysis from the Colombian Chamber of Oil Goods and Services (Campetrol) on exploratory wells, which showed the strong impact of the price crisis. For seismic exploration, the picture is even worse.

Colombia’s Chamber of Oil Goods and Services (Campetrol) compiled a historical and graphical analysis of the pace of exploration wells since the entry of the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), which paints a dismal picture of a crisis which is far worse than that of 2009.

Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) has offered more details on its new exploration strategy through 2030, which looks to reestablish its exploratory success and replace its shrinking supply of reserves.

Missing hard drives with confidential data on offshore blocks and questions about potentially falsified contract guarantees have hit the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), in what is turning into a true mystery drama playing out in local press headlines.