News and AnalysIs for

The current fall in oil prices, and commodities in general, has plenty in common with the price crisis felt in 2008. But there are several key differences that show today’s situation is the end of a super-cycle for commodities.

Much has been said about the formula used to determine monthly gasoline and diesel prices, especially since the fall of international crude prices. But it is becoming clearer that the Brent and WTI have only a small impact in the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) calculations.

Despite a constant message from the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) that a rising price of biofuels has counteracted falling oil prices to keep fuel prices higher, the president of the biofuels association Fedebiocombustibles Jorge Bendeck says its more complicated than that, and increasing the mix would actually drop prices.

After repeated increases, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) said that diesel prices will fall to CoP$7756 (US$2.66) a gallon in Bogotá, a CoP$117 or 1.4% drop. Gasoline prices however will increase.

Representatives from the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) met with representatives from the gasoline and fuel supply chain who called for a frank look at how the Ministry’s formula sets prices each month.

It is becoming harder to explain to Colombians why they are supposed to tighten their belts fiscally because of lower crude oil prices but they do not see associated relief at the pump.

We have frequently noted the disconnect between the official statistics on gas demand (as shown in the chart) and the qualitative evidence of increased domestic gas coverage and vehicle conversions.

Both gasoline and diesel prices will see a small increase in July, as observers speculate whether the entry of the Cartagena Refinery (Reficar) could translate into significant savings for consumers in the beginning of 2016.

While the official analysis for gasoline demand in Colombia expects overall fuel consumption for mobility to grow 67% in 2030 compared to current levels, the use of alternative transport means and fuels could actually contract the market by up to 25% in 2050.

In our weekly statistics, the benchmark oil prices peaked in the week ending Friday, June 20^th 2014. WTI closed US$107.30 and Brent at US$114. The graph shows prices hit bottom in 1Q15 and have strengthened in 2Q15 but the futures graph below shows that traders are still not wildly enthusiastic. Nor are we.