News and AnalysIs for

Ecopetrol’s (NYSE:EC) export distribution in 1Q16 showed a big shift to the US, the Gulf Coast in particular, and away from the Far East, which had been a strategic market for the NOC.

As oil prices have slid, we have been asked about trends in offsets to various oil price benchmarks. We found quarterly Vasconia figures (thanks to Parex) and so were able to check the offset between Colombia’s most important benchmark and what is today the most important global benchmark, Brent. The gap or offset between WTI and Brent has shrunk as prices decreased, what happened to Vasconia and Brent?

In a dramatic shift over just a few weeks, the rain brought back Colombia’s hydro resources, the halted Guatapé plant started working again and thermal generators slashed their natural gas purchases. Now paired with a global surplus of gas, low prices make some of Colombia’s strategic projects, especially offshore, look uncertain.

A decree that would lift restrictions to import ethanol has been criticized by Senators and the biofuels industry association, as were the delays and overruns at Ecopetrol’s (NYSE:EC) biofuel refinery, which is still under construction.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) reported that once gain fuel prices will start to increase after successive drops in recent periods. The international price of fuel and increased biofuel costs were cited as the reason.

The fall in oil prices has set off a chain reaction which started in the producing regions but has now made its way much further and is changing the economic and social reality of the country.

About twice a year we have a reason to publish a long term graph with oil prices in real terms going back to 1986. We had heard of but not found a series going back to the 1920s. Last week at the Association International of Petroleum Negotiators (AIPN) meeting in Bogotá, we saw a graph going back to 1861. The source for this proved easy to find and so appears above.

Although there has been a slight recovery of oil prices to the high US$30 range, analysts believe that Colombian operators need prices at US$45 or higher to reactivate stalled exploration activity.

With 4Q15 results now published for Colombia-committed, publicly traded companies, we could update this graph which shows the average offset or discount to Brent that these companies obtained. This shows that companies receive (on average) about US$10 below whatever Brent is in the quarter.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy updated its fuel prices for April 2016, and announced a drop for diesel and an increase for gasoline starting April 5th. Just four days prior, the ministry said there would be no change to prices for April but also said that might change.