News and AnalysIs for

Despite the well-documented glut of oil in the US – which has (depending on viewpoint) contributed or caused the dramatic fall in oil prices since mid-2014 – Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) actually increased its exports to the US in 4Q14.

The political forces that successfully swayed Ecopetrol’s (NYSE:EC) board to not renew the association contract with Pacific Rubiales (TSX:PRE) have moved on to the next step, that Ecopetrol operate the field directly, opening the door to the USO union to enter the field.

Fresh off a 24-hour strike on March 19, the USO said they will meet with Ecopetrol and government representatives on March 25, and then determine if they will continue with an indefinite strike as promised.

Pacific Rubiales (TSX: PRE) reported net losses amounting to US$1.3B in 2014 (impacted by an asset impairment charge), suspending its dividend as the fall in oil prices left a significant mark on the company’s financial results.

Ecopetrol’s (NYSE:EC) transportation spin off Cenit is planning a series of investments of up to US$4B in total from 2014-2019 to increase its crude oil transport capacity to 1.4mmbd.

The graph shows what has happened to production from Rubiales field since 2002. Meta Petroleum i.e. Pacific Rubiales (TSX:PRE) took over operations of the field in mid-2006 when it was producing just under 10mbd by our estimates.

The corruption case involving former Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) employees and a contract awarded to PetroTiger has arisen again after a new round of arrests, and the NOC says it is a victim and has been efficiently cooperating with the investigation.

Finally ruling on one of the more controversial and uncertain scenarios facing the Colombian oil industry, Ecoeptrol (NYSE:EC) has said it would not renew its association contract with Pacific Rubiales (TSX:PRE) for Colombia’s largest producing field, Rubiales.

The low price of oil is putting Colombia’s biofuels industry and future investments for it at risk says the National Federation of Biofuels (Fedebiocombustibles), although Ecopetrol’s (NYSE:EC) biofuel unit Bioenergy says it will move forward will an expansion of sugar cane crops for fuels and a long delayed plant.

Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) says it has a contingency workforce and that a strike by the USO oil workers union would be illegal and could lead to dismissals. Meanwhile the union is preparing a 24 hours strike for March 19, which could be expanded into an indefinite one.