News and AnalysIs for

Last week the news broke that well-known brokerage house Interbolsa was running short of cash and had been intervened by finance industry supervisor (SuperFinanciera). The news has scared retail investors of all scales. Both the company and the SuperFinanciera insist that stocks purchased by retail investors are safe because they are held in escrow accounts although direct investors in Grupo Interbolsa itself will probably have to take some kind of “hit” to bail out the brokerage firm. What is not at all clear is what happens to certain Interbolsa investments including Tribeca Fund I, the 67.8% owner of PetroLatina, a UK firm which operates in Colombia as PetroNorte – one of the big winners at the 2012 Round with four exploration blocks.

Petrominerales announced the company’s 3Q12 results and investors certainly liked what they heard. At one point the stock was up nearly 11% just before noon Eastern. The company told a good story for potential exploration opportunities but the 3Q12 results themselves were not inspiring. Quarterly production was down 29% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter. The excitement seemed to come from the company changing the profile of its debt (saving cash) and buying back common shares.

Incidents are down again for the third straight week and are just about back to the level they were just before peace talks began. It would be very bad analytic practice to suggest a pattern from a single cycle but these results are consistent with a theory that things will get worse while the sides are actually at the table, going back to “normal” afterward.

On November 1, 2012, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos addressed a summit of mayors of the departmental capitals. The president wanted to address the mayors’ main concerns so the whole speech touched on health, security and royalties. Below we translate the portion of the speech dealing with the latter topic. It is important for the hydrocarbons industry that royalties are well spent and give visibility to its contributions. From the President’s website. Extracted, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Resources from this fund were approved for financing 7 of natural gas networks and connections infrastructure projects by Resolution 180 458 (August 2012). From a MinMinas press release. Translated, edited and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Ecopetrol announced that it transferred a package of assets to its subsidiary Cenit, a hydrocarbons transport company, in exchange for 45,582,982 shares. This contribution is part of a corporate reorganization in the hydrocarbons transport and logistics business line of Colombia’s national oil company, Ecopetrol.

The Colombian Natural Gas Association (Naturgas) will hold a business roundtable with producers, distributors and entrepreneurs to look for innovative business opportunities. The event will be held in Bogota on November 15/16, 2012. From a Naturgas press release. Translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

The Colombian Congress has approved a CoP$17.7T (US$9.2B) royalty budget for the period 2013 – 2014. The Governing Committee (Comisión Rectora) approved this amount to be distributed to the various funds of the royalty system over the next two years. This was announced by MinHacienda, Mauricio Cárdenas, who highlighted the importance of the initiative for creating equity in Colombia. Cárdenas also said two efforts are being unified, the one of government through the Nation’s Budget and the one of regions through royalties, so as many projects can be done as possible, for the progress and prosperity the country seeks.

Fitch Ratings has given a huge endorsement to Pacific Rubiales by quality of their debt with a stable outlook. In their report, the rating agency analyses the company’s strengths and weaknesses to come to its positive outlook. The company’s biggest challenge is the potential for what is currently its biggest asset – Pirri/Rubiales field – to be returned to Ecopetrol in 2016. This fact, misinterpreted by congressman Simon Gaviria, caused a temporary flutter in the stock price last week. Fitch’s upgrade assumes the field will be returned, saying the company has enough strength to overcome even this.