News and AnalysIs for

It is barely visible in the graph but February 2013 oil production in Colombia dipped to 997,581bd from 1,011,992bd in January 2013. We had predicted this based on the incidence of attacks just on the Caño-Limón pipeline and government ministers had shied away from predictions. What is not in this report by MinMinas is the fact that Pacific Rubiales claims that its production is running higher by over 30,000bd after royalties compared to December (probably over 37,000bd before royalties). That means the sum of the rest of the industry is producing less. From a MinMinas press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

As always, the Pacific Rubiales conference call was full of interesting insights on the company and the industry. The Quifa arbitration result warranted an US$62M provision to Pacific Rubiales Net Income and drew multiple questions from analysts. The company had not adjusted its reserves but said it only amounted to “4 or 5Mbl”, some 4 or 5% of Quifa 2P reserves and so a much smaller percentage of overall 2P reserves. But results of the STAR (Synchronized Thermal Additional Recovery) test in Quifa SW drew almost as much interest considering its potential for increasing production without additional water cut. Results, by contrast, got less attention even though both Revenues and EBITDA hit records. Another stunning fact was that production was up 30% in 2013 versus December of 2012.

After a few mixed and a few very disappointing 4Q12 results presentations this quarter, it is nice to read one that seems like good news from beginning to end. The graph tells the story with Parex production increasing sequentially from 2Q12 onward, with the trend continuing into 2013. That kind of growth pulls revenue and profit along for the ride.

As reported by Semana, Ecopetrol has decided to remove control of the Colorada field (located in San Vicente de Chucuri, Santander) from the Universidad Industrial de Santander (UIS), which the company had given to the university in 2006 for training its students until 2016. At the time, the field was producing 14bd but it has been estimated that it could produce as much as 3,500bd.

Gulfsands is a newcomer to the Colombian scene having entered the market really only a few weeks ago when the blocks it won at the 2012 Round last October were finally signed, sealed and delivered by the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH). The company operates principally in the Middle East and North Africa with properties in Morocco, Tunisia and Syria. It recently updated its investor presentation to reflect the assignment of the blocks in Colombia.

Business magazine Dinero reports that 500 truckers threatened to go on strike and, to avoid it, asked companies like Ecopetrol and Pacific Oil Tech help them to find a solution to the problems that left them paralyzed in the Cartagena free trade zone, fact that made them lose about US$800 a day per truck.

It has been widely reported in the Colombian press that the arbitration commission has found in favor of Ecopetrol in its dispute with Pacific Rubiales. The result is an increase in Ecopetrol’s participation in the Quifa field, Pacific Rubiales’ second largest from the point of view of both reserves and production. This Portafolio article suggests that the wrangling is not over since the arbitrators declared they were not able to order Pacific to pay Ecopetrol the accumulated back payments. Pacific’s lawyer Nestor Humberto Martínez also spoke the newspaper about potential court action.

The annual report of this prestigious organization reveals an increasing perception that bribery is a taking place in Colombian business. The graph above shows the frequency of response for various types of bribery comparing 2012 responses to 2010. Uniformly, 2012 responses are higher than 2010 indicating the perception of corruption has worsened. More concerning, and more easily addressed is the result that, despite this increased perception, Colombian businesses seem to take few steps to mitigate such practices. From the Transparency Colombia press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

The National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) published their (outgoing) president’s slides from his presentation to Cera Week, the big oil and gas investor show in Houston last week. What he said is just as important as what the slides say but there still are messages. Orlando Cabrales could not have displayed these slides and said things that radically deviated from their implicit message. Here we focus on unconventional resources for adding to reserves. The graph shows how important unconventional resources are to the ANH’s “Abundance” scenario for new reserves up to 2030.

A few weeks ago we reported a La Republica article outlining a number of potential changes. But nobody else but Reuters picked up the story and the ANH (unusually) started issuing press releases on Orlando Cabrales’ activities. Directly after the news report he was to represent Colombia at an unconventional hydrocarbons conference in Buenos Aires and present at the global industry’s biggest event, Cera Week in Houston. Now, on the second day after he gets back, he finds himself with a new job. From a MinMinas press release translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.