News and AnalysIs for

Our Monthly Report for January 2013 is now available for download (see below). It includes commentary on Colombia’s goals for 2013 by contributor Manuel Maiguashca Olano, an report on tanker trucks in Meta and a fascinating study of local political power relationships in Caquetá by Signum Consulting.

National business newspaper Portafolio reports that the State Council (a superior court that decides on government-related cases) ruled in favor of Ecopetrol in a lawsuit in which 56 individuals sued the company for US$239M claiming ownership of the Cuisiana and Cupiagua fields subsoil. Ecopetrol provisioned the money in the mid-nineties while resolving the lawsuit, so now, after the ruling, it will be returned to the company and will be used on investments.

The government and the Central Bank agreed to take measures in order to curb the appreciation of the peso, which was revalued by over 10% in 2012 and in 2013 has depreciated by 0.62%. MinHacienda Mauricio Cardenas announced that besides a 0.25 basis points cut in the interest rate, the government will implement three measures for raising the exchange rate value by 8%.

National business paper Portafolio reports that Ecopetrol is preparing an analysis of the delivery date and costs of the Cartagena Refinery (Reficar) enlargement. Initially the company approved a US$4.9B budget; however, costs could exceed th US$5B. Ecopetrol expects to complete four of the fourteen units that make up the enlargement this year, which will become operational only when the entire set is ready, as the units are part of a complete refinement cycle.

The chart shows stock prices for the largest publicly traded oil and gas companies that whose activities are largely if not exclusively based in Colombia. All five have over 90% of current production in Colombia (although all are exploring elsewhere).

The graph shows netback and cost broken down into three major categories: royalties, transport and production. The values are averaged over the seven publicly traded companies whose majority business is in Colombia and who provide enough data to do this graph.

Colombia finally achieved its goal of producing 1 million bpd. This new production level positions Colombia on the map of the middle leagues in world production. This is similar to Oman, a traditional Arab Emirate oil producer and the country ranks high in world production.

Multiple sources in the Colombian news media report that workers at the Cerrejon coal mine have voted to go on strike the first week of February. Given this possibility, mine managers invited employees affiliated to the National Coal Industry Union (Sintracarbón) to negotiate their demands. There has not been a strike in the mine for more than 22 years.

In recent statements, President Santos has been optimistic about the peace process with Farc. He said that “if there is will, this country will find that much desired peace.” He recalled that ever since he took office, he considered the peace process a possibility: “And so from day one, with great humility, but with much -and this is what I learned from Winston Churchill- perseverance, I began to weave the possibility of approaching the enemy, approaching FARC, to see if they wanted to find a negotiated solution and end this conflict.”

Paula Acosta, deputy director of the National Planning Department (DNP), spoke to Portafolio.co about the strengths and weaknesses of the royalty system. Acosta said: “The system is running. The leaders already know how it works. It probably does not yet have the desired regional effect, but that is a consequence of a new process. The goal that the eight departments come together to make a great project still has not arrived. It’s something we have to build. Another gain is that there are many projects ready to present in 2013 and 2014. In general, the fundamental change is that everyone is moving based on projects and spending quality.”