News and AnalysIs for

Incidents were down again this week to 40 just a little below the long term average. Again this week a higher than recent average number of the items were initiated by the Armed Forces which is a good sign. Our 4-week Moving Average was down very slightly and it now sits at 42 incidents per week closer to what amounts to a long-term average.

According to Mercedes Rincón, member of Congress, in view of the profits that currently Ecopetrol earns, it is clear that the government was wrong when, two years ago, it tried to sell 10% of the company’s shares that owned. As reported by El Nuevo Siglo, the congresswoman believes that the government’s aborted attempt to sell another 10% would have been a bad idea and it has proven better to have held onto the shares.

While it may seem that the USO’s campaign to discredit the mining and energy industries is self-destructive, one must keep in mind that their goal is not to close the industry but to force multinationals to leave. They want to go back to the days when Ecopetrol ran everything and thus 100% of the jobs were USO jobs. Terpel workers settle for about 4% (which is only slightly over the inflation rate) and Cartagena refinery workers vote to go on strike. If the union manages to stop construction as well, that will delay the Cartagena refinery upgrades even more than they have been.

Peace talks advance with the visit of a congressional committee to Havana and demands by victims of the conflict. After a meeting with the National Unity Coalition in the Casa de Nariño, President Santos said: “I informed the National Unit Coalition how exactly this process is going, how it has been making progress, and what texts are agreed, in which, as has already been said, no previous process ever achieved a step of this nature.” Santos also commented: “The committee went (to Havana) for two very specific purposes: to show these legislative gentlemen progress and to point out the importance of recognizing the victims.” He added: “Of course it is still a long way to go and that is why the issue of time is so important.”

Interoil, operator of a number of Colombian oil blocks got approval from its shareholders to raise US$35M from existing and other investors. The equity is necessary to meet the requirements of bondholders to restructure and extend the company’s debt. The equity will be raised through a crash private placement that will close March 13, 2013. According to a company presentation, Interoil had US$97M of debt and US$10M in cash as of December 31, 2012 and it is using all of the proceeds from production in Peru and Colombia to pay for its debt. It is unable to invest in expanding production because of the debt load.

The Colombian government has a long term program to increase natural gas penetration in Colombia. The purpose is environmental – diversification from more carbon intensive fuels – and partly developmental. Last year the association of producers, transporters and distributors of natural gas Naturgas signed an agreement with the Minister of Mines and Energy to add just over 430,000 new users. The target was exceeded. From a Naturgas press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Ecopetrol continues its publicity campaign about local employment and procurement. This time it is the turn of employment, highlighting how many jobs the company creates and how many are filled with local people. With local hiring being a developing community issue, this Ecopetrol press release is timely. Translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Petrominerales announced its 2012 results this morning and had its conference call at 10:00 am Eastern. At the close, the share price in Toronto was down 8.4%. The company declared a Net Loss of US$54M in 4Q12 versus a profit of US$77M in 2011. For the year the company turned a profit of US$102M but that was 69% less than in 2011. The problem was production which was down 29%. This was offset by higher oil prices and better netbacks so funds from operations were only down 18%. As the graph shows, additions to reserves were minimal meaning 1P (proven) reserves are down 15%.

The National Environmental Licensing Agency (ANLA) has not been helped by the poor data it acquired from the Ministry of Environment when the agency was formed. Since then it has been working hard to fill in the gaps with environmental baseline studies and geo-referencing IT investments. We reported on this project when it was as the consultation stage. From an ANLA press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

Talisman published its annual guidance for 2013 as a consequence of its annual investor open house. Although the company is looking to divest assets with longer-term payoffs, it seems to like its Colombian properties, giving them prominence in the presentation and directing significant CAPEX to 2013 activities in the country. The company also highlighted its investment in Ocensa, which has recently changed its business model from a cost center to a profit center, but this is one of the assets which Talisman would consider selling.