News and AnalysIs for

The Family Welfare Branch of the National Army (JEFAM) and Ecopetrol launched “Plan Padrino”. This plan seeks to provide support to soldiers wounded in pipeline areas in the following departments: Santander, Arauca, Magdalena, Nariño y Putumayo.

El Colombiano reports that last October (2012) Ecopetrol’s shares were the fourth most widely traded in the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA), which integrates the equity markets of Chile, Colombia and Peru. The total value of Ecopetrol shares traded during October was approximately US$445M. In Toronto, the stock closed the month up over US$1.50 although the day before the initial phase of the 2012 Round of auctions it had been up over US$4.00.

The Spanish electricity generation company said in a press release that it will enter the retail gas market next year. According to the press release: “This initiative responds to the opportunities presented in the Colombian market and expectations that consumers currently have for new offers and agents.”

Federico Renjifo was an Ecopetrol board member before he was appointed Minister of Mines and Energy at the beginning of September. He is still a board member as MinMinas but that opened his existing seat to another candidate. Ecopetrol has called a special general assembly for December 6, 2012. So far the only agenda item is election of the missing board member and the company proposes Jorge Pinzón Sánchez of the law firm Opebsa.

Petrodorado filed its 3Q12 financial results and MD&A. The company had no production because its only productive block, Moriche, was shut in pending a sale expected to be completed in 4Q12. Thus the focus is on exploration. The company has provided frequent updates on its activities and most are still at early stages. The most advanced is the Dorado-1X well in the Talora block which is in testing but with nothing to report yet.

Of this amount, CoP$8,668 (US$4.8M) will be invested in the Meta and CoP$3,447 (US$1.9M) will be allocated to many projects in Casanare.

Interoil published its 3Q12 results and they were not encouraging. There was a net loss in the quarter of US$7.1M and year to date Net Income is down by about 2/3 from 2011. Earlier we documented the continuing decline of Interoil’s Colombian production. Near the bottom of Interoil’s 3Q12 results was the statement “The production decline is a direct result of reduced investment activity due to liquidity constraints. To address this issue, the board has initiated a sales process in Colombia”.

National business newspaper La Republica reported that Ecopetrol says that despite the attacks of 17 November to Transandino pipeline, management expects to meet its goal of producing around 780,000 bpd on average by the end of this year. Note that this figure is likely production before royalties (see our November Monthly Report). We estimate it is the equivalent of about 655,200 bpd as usually measured (Net of Working Interest and Royalties).

The Farc surprised everyone last Friday by announcing a unilateral truce to last for two months. They said they were suspending all attacks against civilian, government and private targets. Of course, they had just blown up the TransAndino pipeline the day before so they went out with a bang so to speak. The government immediately said they would not reciprocate, consistent with their line since the beginning of the peace process. What is worrisome are rumors that Farc commanders in the south may not comply with their leaders’ orders.

The Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism reported that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) destined to sectors not related to mining and energy increased from US$1.299,1M in November 2010 to US$2.634,1M in November 2012. During the course of 2012 the FDI indicator has grown by 12.9%.