News and AnalysIs for

As we predicted, incidents were way up this week after having fallen for five straight weeks. The vast number of incidents were reported by the Colombian Armed Forces so it was clear the government was responsible for turning up the heat. The Colombian government never agreed to lay down their arms so this is not surprising. This is not to say the Farc were angels or that the self-declared truce was being observed perfectly, but there were fewer of these. ‘Somebody’ blew up two electrical towers in Antioquia and the departmental government thinks it was the Farc.

On November 22 Reyes Reinoso Yánez, a chemical engineer from Venezuela, took over as president (e) of the Cartagena refinery (Reficar). Reinoso took office after Orlando Cabrales Martínez quit for personal reasons.

We reported earlier in the week that the Pacific Rubiales-C&C Energy deal had given a boost to the share prices of other Colombia-focused companies. The question was whether the boost would be sustainable: would the “animal spirits” (as one of our experts put it) continue to hold or will the reality that PRE did the deal with C&C and not with someone else bring prices back to earth? As the chart shows, the answer seems to be that the boost was generally sustained.

Petronova published its 3Q12 results and the press release was mostly a review of its exploration activities since production is minimal at this time. Revenues were US$33,708 for the quarter. The company operates the PUT-2 and Tinigua blocks both of which are pending environmental licensing. Petronova also has non-operated working interests in Llanos blocks CPO-06, CPO-07 and CPO-13 where its partner is Tecpetrol. Petronova President and CEO Antonio summarized the company’s quarter saying, “PetroNova successfully closed a CAD$30 million private placement this quarter, which enables the progression of our active exploration program. We expect to drill eight additional exploration wells through mid-2013”.

Based on numerous reports in the Colombian press Minminas Federico Renjifo believes about 100,000 barrels of oil production is held up due to delays in the granting of environmental licenses. In some cases National Environmental Licensing Agency (ANLA) employees are making requirements beyond those established by law. Renjifo also claimed that the licenses are a bottleneck and there need to be manuals for the procedures to be followed by companies to get crude oil exploration and development licenses.

The big news this week without question was the purchase of C&C Energy (aka CyC Energia) by Pacific Rubiales.

The Family Welfare Branch of the National Army (JEFAM) and Ecopetrol launched “Plan Padrino”. This plan seeks to provide support to soldiers wounded in pipeline areas in the following departments: Santander, Arauca, Magdalena, Nariño y Putumayo.

El Colombiano reports that last October (2012) Ecopetrol’s shares were the fourth most widely traded in the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA), which integrates the equity markets of Chile, Colombia and Peru. The total value of Ecopetrol shares traded during October was approximately US$445M. In Toronto, the stock closed the month up over US$1.50 although the day before the initial phase of the 2012 Round of auctions it had been up over US$4.00.

The Spanish electricity generation company said in a press release that it will enter the retail gas market next year. According to the press release: “This initiative responds to the opportunities presented in the Colombian market and expectations that consumers currently have for new offers and agents.”

Federico Renjifo was an Ecopetrol board member before he was appointed Minister of Mines and Energy at the beginning of September. He is still a board member as MinMinas but that opened his existing seat to another candidate. Ecopetrol has called a special general assembly for December 6, 2012. So far the only agenda item is election of the missing board member and the company proposes Jorge Pinzón Sánchez of the law firm Opebsa.